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29 January 2026
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The rapid change in long-term bond yields, particularly over the past 12 months, has been the primary cause of the decline in the market value of our portfolios, and has represented the worst macro environment for long-duration assets, in a very long time.Despite recent declines in our portfolios, the underlying fundamentals have not deteriorated, with our companies' competitive positions and long-term earnings growth profiles remaining strong. Short-term fears about recession, temporary increases in bond yields and inflation are 'noise' and should not be our focus. Instead, focus should be on long-term valuations representing 'signal'.
A cyclical recession over the next year is unlikely to impact our portfolios' long-term forecast EPS and valuations due to our high levels of innovation and low penetration rates. In a world where growth will again become scarce, businesses that grow by taking market share will be in a strong position to produce attractive returns over the long term. The current selloff is providing an opportunity for long-term investors to get exposure to some of the best businesses in the world at attractive prices.Short-term factors are mere 'noise' rather than fundamental long-term 'signals'.You can find further thought pieces from Hyperion on our website here.
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What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Mark Carney has spoken of a rupture in the rules based system that has governed the world since 1945. That rupture means nations like Australia will need to boost defence spending and find savings elsewhere.
With ASX dividend yields now below government bond yields, investors face an upside-down market where income is scarce, growth is muted, and careful selection of bond-like stocks has never mattered more.
ASX miners are back in favour after playing second fiddle to banks for years. Is it too late to get in? Here are some thoughts on the large caps such as BHP and Rio, and the hot gold mining sector.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.
Tariff turmoil tested Asia, but AI leadership, policy easing and reform momentum are restoring investor confidence and strengthening the region’s outlook for 2026.
New research explains why high valuations, low dividends and bullish sentiment rarely coexist with strong long-term returns after extended bull markets.