Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 240

VIX, XIV and all that jazz

Before 2007, few people had a clue what a Collateralised Debt Obligation (CDO) was. When cash funds that held CDOs froze redemptions as the market collapsed, the loss of confidence drove what became the GFC. Suddenly, not only was mainstream media explaining CDOs, but so did bestselling books and Hollywood movies, the highlight being Michael Lewis's excellent The Big Short.

There's a scramble now to explain XIV. Bring on Lewis's next book. One day after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had its largest-ever one day rise of 116%, Credit Suisse announced it would close its inverse VIX note. This VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (NASDAQ code XIV) lost 96% of its value on one day. It's arcane to most Australian investors, but this was a $2.5 billion listed note that many local traders enjoyed as it returned 150% per annum for the previous two years.

What happened? In brief, until the start of 2018, equity markets had enjoyed years of falling volatility. Traders used products based on the value of the VIX (the VIX is an index and cannot be directly bought or sold) to sell at say 20, and buy back at say 12 as volatility fell. The inverse note, XIV, traded on the market just like a share, and as the VIX fell, XIV increased in price. Where there's demand, Wall Street creates a product.

But many traders had forgotten about risk. As volatility returned to the market, VIX rose dramatically, and the inverse note, the leveraged XIV, collapsed.

This 'shorting volatility' strategy paid for many a Porsche out of trader bonuses. Discussion website Reddit has a 'Trade XIV' group with 1,800 members, which carried posts like: "How I made $356K on XIV in two years". Now it includes this post:

"I've lost $4 million, 3 years of work, and other people's money. I started with 50k from my time in the army and a small inheritance, grew it to 4 mill in 3 years of which 1.5 mill was capital I raised from investors who believed in me. The amount of money I was making was ludicrous, could take out my folks and even extended family to nice dinners and stuff. Was planning to get a nice apartment and car or take my parents on a holiday, but now it's all gone."

Many of the investors were friends and family. I have not attached the relevant link to Reddit because much of the language is crude.

I'll leave it to Michael Lewis to write the XIV book and explain backwardation, gamma and contango, given he will have about 300 pages. Then go watch the movie.

It's not investing. Volatility trading and the need to cover leveraged risk on XIV and other products probably accelerated the overall market decline. This activity infiltrates mainstream stocks and induces investors to panic in response to headlines and fear. Forces such as these and high frequency trading (where computers automatically issue orders and now comprise about 60% of US equity trading) can have a pervasive impact on everyone's portfolio. The consequences appear to have been contained this time, and despite the screaming headlines, the US share market is ahead in 2018 to date.

 

Graham Hand is Managing Editor of Cuffelinks.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

What does the 'fear gauge' VIX really mean?

Managing the threat of rising volatility risk

Is the current market really more volatile?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Latest Updates

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

Economy

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

Preference votes matter

If the recent polls are anything to go by, we are headed for a hung parliament at the upcoming federal election. So more than ever, Australians need to give serious consideration to their preference votes.

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Tips for the last member standing

It’s common for people as they age to seek more help in running their SMSF if their capacity declines. An alternate director may be a great solution for someone just planning for short-term help in the meantime.

Wilson Asset Management on markets and its new income fund

In this interview, Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management discusses his outloook for the ASX, sectors such as REITs that he likes, and his firm's launch of a new income-oriented listed investment company.  

Planning

‘Life expectancy’ – and why I don’t like the expression

Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid. 

The shine is back on gold, and gold miners

Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.