Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Why Australia has missed out on the “small cap effect”

Introduction

The idea that smaller companies offer higher risk-adjusted returns than larger companies, a claimed phenomenon known as the “small cap effect,” continues to live rent-free in the collective mind of Australian investors.

The size effect was first coined in Rolf W. Banz’s seminal 1981 paper “The relationship between return and market value of common stocks.” 1 Banz asserted that smaller firms, which he defined as the smallest 20% of the universe by market capitalisation, have higher risk adjusted returns, on average, than larger firms. Banz also found little difference in returns between medium sized and large sized firms.

But, for an investor, is the concept all it’s cracked up to be? Namely, does Banz’s concept of the small cap effect hold water in the Australian market?

There are currently 2,400 firms listed in the ASX. If an index was to be created on the ASX using Banz’s definition of a small firm, the largest constituent would be roughly A$8m in market capitalisation. In contrast, the smallest company in the ASX small ordinaries index currently is $200m in market capitalisation; and some of the largest constituents are larger than A$10b in market capitalisation. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the experience of an in investor in the ASX small ordinaries index has persistently bore no resemblance to the stellar returns depicted by Banz.

While many investors in Australia take a decision to structurally overweight small cap stocks given the sector and stock concentration in the large cap index, our analysis suggests that a separate allocation to small caps isn’t necessarily the best or most cost effective way to achieve this.

This paper will make the case that the performance, risk and constituent characteristics of the small cap index in Australia are poor; that the small cap designation is itself a misnomer (at least as it pertains to Australia); and the consequent benefit of investing in an unconstrained fund that can play the entire ASX.

Download the full paper

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Shares

The case for and against US stock market exceptionalism

The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.

Taxation

Negative gearing: is it a tax concession?

Negative gearing allows investors to deduct rental property expenses, including interest, from taxable income, but its tax concession status is debatable. The real issue lies in the favorable tax treatment of capital gains. 

Investing

How can you not be bullish the US?

Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.

Planning

Navigating broken relationships and untangling assets

Untangling assets after a broken relationship can be daunting. But approaching the situation fully informed, in good health and with open communication can make the process more manageable and less costly.

Beware the bond vigilantes in Australia

Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.

Retirement

What you need to know about retirement village contracts

Retirement village contracts often require significant upfront payments, with residents losing control over their money. While they may offer a '100% share in capital gain', it's important to look at the numbers before committing.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.