Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

1 April 2026

Home / White Papers 2023

Economic outlook: A mixed picture for global growth in 2024

Foreword by Martin Romo, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Capital Group

Prepare for changes in the investing climate

Heading into 2024, it’s difficult to remember another time when the outlook was so uncertain. Recession or expansion? Inflation or deflation? Higher interest rates or lower? Take your pick and you will find a pundit arguing for each scenario as if it was a foregone conclusion.

As a long-term investor, I prefer to focus on larger trends, events that may shape not just the next year, but the next decade or more. I like to use the analogy of the weather report vs. long-term weather patterns. While many others are concerned about the near-term forecast, I am looking for signs of large-scale change —events and trends that have the potential to change companies, industries, economies and the world.

Along those lines, here are some questions we are asking today: How might rapid advancements in artificial intelligence alter the way companies do business? And which companies are positioned to win the AI race? Will electricity, wind and solar power displace fossil fuels as our primary source of energy? And how long could that process take? In the bond market, with US Treasury yields near 16-year highs, are we at the start of a historic opportunity as real income returns to the fixed income universe?

On the other hand, we must be wary of gathering storm clouds. Will rising government debt levels lead to lower economic growth rates? How might worsening tensions between the US and China affect global trade? What is the risk that wars in Ukraine and Israel will spill into wider fields of conflict? And, in a pivotal election year, will market volatility keep nervous investors on the sidelines?

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but it’s our job to explore them through exhaustive bottom-up, fundamental research. Large-scale change can bring a high degree of volatility, but also unprecedented opportunities. That’s prime time for active investing.

Against this backdrop, I invite you to read and share our 2024 Outlook report.

Download the full paper

 

  •   11 December 2023
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Want your loved ones to inherit your super? You can’t afford to skip this one step

One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings. 

Super is catching up, but ageing is a triple-threat

An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

The 5% deposit scheme is bad for homeowners and Australia

An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.

3 ways to defuse intergenerational anger

With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.

Navigating the next stage of life in retirement

Retirement planning is more than just saving enough money. Long-term care needs, housing choices, and social networks are just as critical for a happy and enjoyable life.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

Economy

Central banks need higher inflation targets

In a shift away from solely targeting low inflation, central banks are considering raising inflation targets to combat economic challenges, but face potential drawbacks and conflicts in policy implementation.

Exchange traded products

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

Latest from Morningstar

Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong

New research shows smarter portfolio construction—not new factors—is the real edge in the hunt for alpha. However, finding it requires a fundamentally different mindset.

Investment strategies

The diversification illusion: why 'balanced' portfolios may be exposed

Many 'diversified' portfolios are increasingly driven by the same narrow set of forces. As concentration builds beneath the surface, understanding how portfolios behave - not just how they’re constructed - is critical for investors.

Investment strategies

The case for staying the course in credit

Current market volatility is likened to Lenin's quote on rapid change. Rising oil prices and interest rates impact bond and corporate yields, with a potential economic downturn ahead. Maintaining interest rate duration is advised.

Investment strategies

One risk after another

Investors often focus on front-of-mind risks, reacting to each headline event without considering long-term impacts. Cass Sunstein and Timur Kuran define this as an "availability cascade," affecting financial decision-making.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.