Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 305

Cuffelinks Firstlinks Edition 305

Our recent interviews with fund managers have been highly popular, so we have collected them with others in a new 'Interview Series'. It includes my chats with Nobel Laureate, Harry Markowitz; leading UK CEO and CIO, Sir Michael Hintze; global bestselling author, Burton Malkiel; global pension expert, Keith Ambachtsheer; US financial advice expert, Michael Kitces; Cambridge Finance Professor, Elroy Dimson; and another Nobel Laureate, Robert Merton. That's august company for our local fundies.

This week, Joe Magyer explains how a focus on small companies, fascinations, pricing power, customer loyalty and networks led him to invest in Altium, Afterpay and Audinate.

The legends of Buffett, Munger and Lynch

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger held the Berkshire Hathaway meeting last weekend, and allowed the two men who will probably succeed them to speak for the first time. Buffett explained why he took time to invest in Amazon and Apple and missed out on Microsoft. Wilbur Li has selected 10 short quotes from the meeting that show why Berkshire Hathaway is in good hands.

One of my first books on investing was Peter Lynch's 'Beating the Street'. Lynch was probably the greatest 'mutual fund' (what we call managed fund) manager of all time, with his Fidelity Magellan Fund returning 29% per annum against the S&P500 16% in 13 years to 1990. Lynch's main way to find new investment ideas was to watch what people (including his wife and three daughters) were buying and follow the company:

"As an investment strategy, hanging out at the mall is far superior to taking a stockbroker's advice on faith or combing the financial press for the latest tips ... I don't think of it as browsing. I think of it as fundamental analysis. Here are more prospects than you could uncover in a month of investment conferences." 

Of course, times have changed, and the great investments since Lynch retired are not in retailing but technology. Lynch had a favourite saying: "If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock", which was not great advice for investors in Dick Smith, Myer, Toys 'R' Us, Roger David, Sears, Payless, Diesel and countless other retailers.

But Lynch's advice to buy the company if you love the product must apply to Microsoft. I have spent most days of my career using Word, Excel and PowerPoint, and while we wax lyrically about the wonders of the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google), we don't give Microsoft the same credit. Today, it is once again the largest company in the world, and not one other company from the Top 10 in 2000 remains on the list. Business additions include LinkedInand Skype, while its Azure cloud service is growing rapidly.



More investing insights in this edition

Roger Montgomery writes an interesting perspective on Uber on the eve of its IPO. It's one of those companies that divides opinion and the path to profit has many hurdles.

While the US and Australia continue to defy expectations of a recession, Matthew Tufanoupdates the economic outlook, and provides a fascinating chart on what happens to investors who attempt to time the market after rises and falls.

Many people responded to the introduction of the $1.6 million cap on pension assets by opening a second SMSF, and Monica Rule looks at when it is a worthwhile strategy.

Final Leaders' Debate focusses on superannuation and franking credits

We had proof of the importance of superannuation in this election in the final Leaders' Debate last night. Scott Morrison's first question directly to Bill Shorten was on Labor's policy on tax deductions for super contributions. Noel Whittaker questions the proposed change.

In the debate, franking credits were again prominent. The Prime Minister called Labor's policy:

"a heinous tax on Australians who have worked hard all their lives ... I think to treat self-funded retirees who have put themselves in that situation, to say they're no longer independent and a recipient of some special largesse from the Government, is very offensive to them."

Bill Shorten replied:

"If you get an income tax refund and you haven't paid income tax in that year, it is not a refund. It's a gift. It's not illegal. It's not immoral. It's the law, but it's not sustainable."

For those who think we have covered this subject too much, it's still a leading issue. In the absence of an article written for us by an authority defending Labor's policy, we have collected comments which are favourable to the proposal. Then Justin McCarthy shows how different types of bonds and hybrids may be one solution to the need for income.

Finally, this week's White Paper from AMP Capital's Shane Oliver examines the seasonality of share prices and asks: "Should you sell in May and go away?"

Graham Hand, Managing Editor

(A reminder that the interviews in our Interview Series provide many insights into how to manage portfolios and risk, including from some of the world's leading authorities).

 

For a PDF version of this week’s newsletter articles, click here.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Vale Graham Hand

It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

Investment strategies

Time to announce the X-factor for 2024

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.

Shares

Australian shares struggle as 2020s reach halfway point

It’s halfway through the 2020s decade and time to get a scorecheck on the Australian stock market. The picture isn't pretty as Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far, though history shows that all is not lost.

Shares

Is FOMO overruling investment basics?

Four years ago, we introduced our 'bubbles' chart to show how the market had become concentrated in one type of stock and one view of the future. This looks at what, if anything, has changed, and what it means for investors.

Shares

Is Medibank Private a bargain?

Regulatory tensions have weighed on Medibank's share price though it's unlikely that the government will step in and prop up private hospitals. This creates an opportunity to invest in Australia’s largest health insurer.

Shares

Negative correlations, positive allocations

A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.

Retirement

The secret to a good retirement

An Australian anthropologist studying Japanese seniors has come to a counter-intuitive conclusion to what makes for a great retirement: she suggests the seeds may be found in how we approach our working years.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.