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22 January 2025
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Roger Montgomery on valuing a company, emotions in investing, underperforming fund managers, default funds needed for the disengaged, and a bond guy's view of equities.
Investors who follow the herd invariably end up buying near the tops when everybody else is buying and selling near the bottom. Investors need to resist the temptation to get caught up in the hype of the daily news and noise.
If you’re not prepared to select a manager and hang in there for at least three years and preferably five, index and save yourself some fees. You should expect underperformance at some time in the investment cycle.
Price is what you pay for something, but value is what you will receive and the value will ultimately determine your return. Your job as an investor then, is to own shares that are worth more than you paid for them.
While it would be preferable if disengaged investors became more aware of their superannuation, it is an unrealistic expectation. A degree of paternalism is necessary in the design of defaults.
Simple maths helps explain why the share market is so volatile. It’s not that it’s an irrational, casino-like beast that bucks and dives for no good reason. It’s a long duration market reacting to changes.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.