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15 January 2025
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Rising oil prices and the sharemarket, cynicism and credit risk, the amazing life of hedge fund legend Sir Michael Hintze, Ben Graham's wisdom and how the minor parties won a seat.
In the world of credit risk, you need to understand the capacity of the borrower to pay what they’ve promised, then assume that they will let you down anyway and avoid concentrating your portfolio.
In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.
Rising oil prices may sound scary to investors, but if we go beyond the popular myth and look at the facts, we see a very different picture. Rising oil prices are more often accompanied by rising stocks.
There is a potential trading opportunity in every major event, natural or man-made. But whatever you do, it's important to make a positive difference with your life, according to this Australian legend of the hedge fund industry.
The critical point is that the number of first preference votes cast for minor parties in Victoria was greater than one quota. We got what we voted for, and the system allowed minor party voters to deny a major party seat.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.