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18 September 2025
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Demographics, the ageing population and adverse impacts on economic growth, don't overlook risk in portfolios, bonds and inflation risk and pension reform.
Using interactive graphics, we can model the impact of changing demographics on economic growth for all major countries. Will lower growth become the 'new normal' due to an ageing population?
If we expect government policies to deliver implausible growth when a demographic tailwind has become a headwind, we'll have temporary ‘growth’ with debt-financed consumption, with longer term adverse consequences.
We focus far more on the return from our investments rather than the risk, and we should watch for leverage or high risk-taking and expect to be rewarded for it to pay for the added risk.
Investors should not shun bonds in their portfolios due to a misunderstanding about the potential for earnings to grow at least in line with inflation. Fixed income has a role in inflation risk management.
Tapering is the rate at which pensions reduce as other sources of income increase. A change is unlikely to make it onto Joe Hockey's list of pensions amendments in the upcoming budget.
Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.
The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.