Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Global investment outlook: this isn’t 2008

This is not a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis

Overview of the Franklin Templeton Institute’s April Global Investment Outlook, featuring insights from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, Western Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Benefit Street Partners and Clarion Partners.

Today’s banking ‘crisis’ is far less severe than 2008, and it’s not systemic. Indeed, the quality of overall bank assets and capital ratios are dramatically better. Central banks are now coordinating globally to offer banks daily access to the capital they need to operate smoothly. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed because of a mismatch between its short-term depositors who were withdrawing assets and its longer-term assets, mostly US Treasuries, that had dropped in value as interest rates increased.

Key takeaways from the outlook paper include:

  • The banking system will almost certainly get more oversight and regulation. Much of this oversight will likely be focused on regional banks. We continue to see investment opportunities within regional banks, but each bank will need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, not as a group.
  • Cash deposits are moving from regional banks to money market funds. More deposits are leaving the banking system. Money market funds have been the biggest beneficiary; with over US$286 billion of inflows in March, this has brought money market balances to the highest level on record. Bigger banks are also benefiting according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, as flows to the largest 25 banks increased by US$120 billion.
  • Who are potential winners against this backdrop? We see opportunities in income, especially fixed income and dividend paying equity. We generally favour investment-grade and sovereign debt, while the outlook for emerging market local currency debt also looks promising. Non-US equity is apt to be attractive as China reopens and Europe shows more resilience than expected.
  • Private credit will likely be one of the beneficiaries. Private credit will likely replace some of the current regional bank loans. We believe the current market disruptions may present the most attractive investment opportunity for private debt since the GFC.

For more detailed insights and outlooks from the Franklin Templeton Investment teams, read the complete April Global Investment Outlook.


 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

How much do you need to retire comfortably?

Two commonly asked questions are: 'How much do I need to retire' and 'How much can I afford to spend in retirement'? This is a guide to help you come up with your own numbers to suit your goals and needs.

Meg on SMSFs: Clearing up confusion on the $3 million super tax

There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue. 

The secrets of Australia’s Berkshire Hathaway

Washington H. Soul Pattinson is an ASX top 50 stock with one of the best investment track records this country has seen. Yet, most Australians haven’t heard of it, and the company seems to prefer it that way.

How long will you live?

We are often quoted life expectancy at birth but what matters most is how long we should live as we grow older. It is surprising how short this can be for people born last century, so make the most of it.

Australian housing is twice as expensive as the US

A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 566 with weekend update

Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.

  • 27 June 2024

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

Economy

A pullback in Australian consumer spending could last years

Australian consumers have held up remarkably well amid rising interest rates and inflation. Yet, there are increasing signs that this is turning, and the weakness in consumer spending may last years, not months.

Investment strategies

The 9 most important things I've learned about investing over 40 years

The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

Shares

Tax-loss selling creates opportunities in these 3 ASX stocks

It's that time of year when investors sell underperforming stocks at a loss to offset capital gains from profitable investments. This tax-loss selling is creating opportunities in three quality ASX stocks.

Economy

The global baby bust

Across the globe, leaders are concerned about the fallout from declining birth rates and shrinking populations. Australia, though attractive to migrants, mirrors global birth rate declines, and faces its own challenges.

Economy

Hidden card fees and why cash should make a comeback

Australians are paying almost two billion dollars in credit and debit card fees each year and the RBA wil now probe the whole payment system. What changes are needed to ensure the system is fair and transparent?

Investment strategies

Investment bonds should be considered for retirement planning

Many Australians neglect key retirement planning tools. Investment bonds are increasingly valuable as they facilitate intergenerational wealth transfer and offer strategic tax advantages, thereby enhancing financial security.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.