This is not a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis
Overview of the Franklin Templeton Institute’s April Global Investment Outlook, featuring insights from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, Western Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Benefit Street Partners and Clarion Partners.
Today’s banking ‘crisis’ is far less severe than 2008, and it’s not systemic. Indeed, the quality of overall bank assets and capital ratios are dramatically better. Central banks are now coordinating globally to offer banks daily access to the capital they need to operate smoothly. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed because of a mismatch between its short-term depositors who were withdrawing assets and its longer-term assets, mostly US Treasuries, that had dropped in value as interest rates increased.
Key takeaways from the outlook paper include:
- The banking system will almost certainly get more oversight and regulation. Much of this oversight will likely be focused on regional banks. We continue to see investment opportunities within regional banks, but each bank will need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, not as a group.
- Cash deposits are moving from regional banks to money market funds. More deposits are leaving the banking system. Money market funds have been the biggest beneficiary; with over US$286 billion of inflows in March, this has brought money market balances to the highest level on record. Bigger banks are also benefiting according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, as flows to the largest 25 banks increased by US$120 billion.
- Who are potential winners against this backdrop? We see opportunities in income, especially fixed income and dividend paying equity. We generally favour investment-grade and sovereign debt, while the outlook for emerging market local currency debt also looks promising. Non-US equity is apt to be attractive as China reopens and Europe shows more resilience than expected.
- Private credit will likely be one of the beneficiaries. Private credit will likely replace some of the current regional bank loans. We believe the current market disruptions may present the most attractive investment opportunity for private debt since the GFC.
For more detailed insights and outlooks from the Franklin Templeton Investment teams, read the complete April Global Investment Outlook.
