I am currently stuck in rural France on Day 6 of a total national confinement, about to enter a period of unknown duration in which it will be impossible to return to Australia. All passenger flights, as far as I know, cease in the next few days, for a month at least. That will likely coincide with the initial peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, making it a bleak time.
Total confinement is pretty close to being under house arrest. So I thought I would share what it has been like here, and my thoughts about what Australia can take from it.
France moved to wartime conditions
Like virtually all countries, France was caught short by the exponential spread of COVID-19 through its population. But shaken by the Italian experience, which increasingly resembles a horror movie, it has taken the most decisive actions in the western world. Macron has realised quickly that this is a shift to essentially wartime conditions.
It was just 8 days ago that all cafes, bars and restaurants in France were closed on Saturday night, with just 4 hours' notice, in the interests of social distancing. We were in a favourite restaurant at the time of the announcement and it is fair to say that everyone, patrons and staff alike, were stunned. However, like Sydney's Bondi Beach experience, the change in behaviour was slow to take effect - the parks and Seine in Paris were crowded with people the following day in beautiful spring weather.
On last Monday a total national confinement of at least 14 days was announced in France, taking effect Tuesday. All shops were closed, excluding supermarkets and other food stores, petrol stations, medical (including vets), and tobacconists (this is France after all). Virtually everything else is closed too, including open public spaces such as parks. Schools and universities were closed two weeks ago, and I suspect will not re-open until after the northern summer holidays.
We're now on day 6 of the confinement, and in theory there are only 8 to go. But most expect that it will be extended by another one to two weeks beyond the original 14 days.
During this period, you are expected to stay home and remain indoors pretty much all the time. It's not much different from house arrest. You can leave the house, but only for very specific reasons:
- To go to work (if you can't work remotely)
- To buy food
- For medical reasons
- Urgent family needs
- Individual exercise (but must be within 2 kilometres of your home) or walking your dog.
Every time you leave the house for one of these purposes, you must complete a government form relating to the above, and carry it with you along with ID. There are police roadblocks across France checking drivers for compliance, and patrols of cities and towns checking pedestrians too. Non-compliance brings a fine of at least $60. A huge number have already been issued.
My day looks like this too. I take the dog outside first thing. I exercise morning or night. I might walk to the supermarche or boulangerie. I take the dog around the block a few more times during the day, and we take a long walk together before dinner - carrying our form and ID each time. The rest of the time I'm inside. I haven't been stopped in a police check yet but it's probably just a matter of time. Or maybe they know to ignore the local Australian with bad French (their English is worse).
It's draconian stuff so it needs to work given the devastating impact on the economy. Macron figured this out pretty quickly too. France started the now widely-accepted (in less than a week, can you believe) approach of the government picking up the tab for a large part of wages etc to try and keep things afloat.
It's too early to say if it's going to work in halting the exponential increase in COVID cases. The data for the past couple of days has stabilised at a bit under 2,000 new cases a day (terrifying in itself). The stablisation is encouraging but it might be a blip. Hopefully we see the numbers start to decline next week.
French support for the lockdown
But the population is clearly behind the approach, the often bolshie French have largely answered Macron's call and stayed home. There is a lot of wartime-like solidarity, for now at least.
Some other observations:
- There are no food shortages, other than exotica from overseas. There's plenty of meat, fruit, vegetables, and of course cheese, and ample pasta, rice etc. There was an early run on potatoes, but they were restocked in two days. Combined with the restrictions on physical activity, putting on weight is a considerably higher risk than starvation.
- There is plenty of toilet paper - not all brands are in stock but there is plenty of basic stuff around. Same for tissues, pain killers etc... but as with virtually everywhere, hand sanitiser and wipes are impossible to get. One of the benefits of the confinement is very few cars on the road; cargo trucks have the French motorways largely to themselves and are flowing smoothly.
- There is no panic buying or queues at supermarkets, pharmacies or anywhere else. In fact, it is quiet. At the well-stocked Grand Frais fruit market you are issued with disposable latex gloves on entry for handling fresh produce and no-one complains.
- People are religiously observing the one metre of personal space. They are friendly but cautious, knowing COVID-19 is circulating in this area.
- Official government public health communication and advertising has been good - very regular, consistent, logical and clear.
The French are making the best of it. Whether Macron's strategy proves right or wrong, time will tell very soon, but at least it's super clear and pretty much everyone understands it.
I don't pretend to understand the panicked behaviours of Australians that I have watched from the other side of the world. Australia and France are roughly analogous in producing more food than they need and make plenty of the basics of life. Neither country is going to run out of either. I'd be much more worried about the UK which imports large quantities of almost everything.
The worst of both worlds
I do worry however, that Australia - and the UK for that matter - could end up with the worst of both worlds; ie laying waste to the economy but not dampening down the spread of the virus enough, because the public health measures are half-way houses with too many leaks. I hope my worries are misplaced. But at this stage, I'd back the French to bring COVID-19 under control quicker with their severe, but widely understood and supported approach.
Hopefully we get through this sooner than later. Notwithstanding that I am bunkered down safely and well provisioned in France with Charlie the dog, it's a little unnerving knowing that you cannot flee to the safety of home for a time. It feels like we're about to disappear around the dark side of the moon. We'll just have to ride it out, come out the other side, and trust for a resumption of international movement (no doubt on a more limited basis than we have been used to) which will allow many families to be reunited.
Bon courage a tous!
Footnote: France has announced that the confinement measures will be tightened further, and are likely to be extended for at least a week. Most of the world seems to be moving to a model of three weeks tight lockdown. But it's real tough on a family with three kids in a small apartment!
Andrew Baker is a Global Partner (UK & EMEA) at NMG Consulting.