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29 April 2024
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We investigate the pervasive but misunderstood price effects of stocks in the period surrounding their dividend payments. Known as “dividend run up” (DRU), we observe a positive excess return from tilting towards dividend paying stocks in the month (or slightly longer) prior to the ex-date. There are two separate effects to consider: the cum-dividend price run up, and the ex-dividend price drop off.
Note that this effect is often thought to be a tax effect specific to Australia. Investors who hold stocks that pay franked dividends in theory “go on strike” from selling for 45 days surrounding the dividend ex-date, in order to capture the franking credit along with the cash dividend. This creates price pressure which drives up prices. While this supposition appears to be at least partly true, the same effect manifests itself in unfranked dividend payers in Australia, and in many other markets around the world. There is more to this than just maximising dividends and franking. Note that this paper looks only at Australian stocks. Later work will extend it to other markets around the world.
Download the full paper
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.
The US market has pummelled Australia's over the past 16 years and for good reason: it has some incredible businesses. Australia does too, but if you want to enjoy US-type returns, you need to know where to look.
As long as the banks have no desire to pay up for term deposit funding - which looks likely for a while yet - investors will continue to pay a premium for the higher yielding, but riskier hybrid instrument.
The rise of the Magnificent Seven and their large weighting in US indices has led to debate about concentration risk in markets. Whatever your view, the crowding into these stocks poses several challenges for global investors.
Money can bolster our joy in real ways. However, if we relentlessly chase wealth at the expense of other facets of well-being, history and science both teach us that it will lead to a hollowing out of life.
The copper market is barrelling towards a significant deficit and price surge over the next few decades that investors should not discount when looking at the potential for artificial intelligence and renewable energy.
Global REITs have been out of favour for some time. While office remains a concern, the rest of the sector is in good shape and offers compelling value, with many REITs trading below underlying asset replacement costs.