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Whitepapers: Neuberger Berman

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Small Caps: To Index or Not to Index

Small caps are the most passively managed among all equity size categories, yet we believe they offer a highly contoured and target-rich landscape for active stock selection.

Comparing evergreen and traditional fund returns in private equity

As the landscape of private equity investing continues to evolve, evergreen funds have emerged as an alternative to traditional funds utilising capital calls and distributions.

Private debt: Few facts behind the fears

Despite a rising tide of negative media coverage, we believe that private debt still has tremendous potential to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns for investors.

Private Credit Is gaining steam - Where do we go from here

This paper discusses the remarkable rise of private credit; the factors that, in our view, will shape its evolution; and its potential to continue delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns for selective investors.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 4Q 2023

Higher for Longer, Longer the Stronger. “Savings depletion and weakness among small-cap and regional bank stocks suggest that the U.S. economy may not be as strong as it seems.”

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 4Q 2023

Slowing growth could still be enough to avoid a hard landing, but in a higher-for-longer rate environment yields may provide the bulk of near-term total returns.

Ten for 2023 - Midyear Update

Last November, the heads of our four investment platforms identified the key themes they expected to be prominent in the markets during 2023. We revisited these concepts to see how they’ve played out so far and assess our outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 2Q23

In 2023, investors will face a challenge finding a balance between lower interest rates and a deteriorating economy. Bank failures will lead to tighter lending conditions, and watch exposure to commercial real estate.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q23

Last year saw a historic surge in inflation and interest rates, and a corresponding reset in financial asset valuations. At the start of 2023, we believe peak inflation has passed, and anticipate a gradual reduction in pricing pressures over the year.

Private markets: from alternative to mainstream

This paper, by Erik Knutzen, explores the evolution of private markets over the past 30 years and looks at key trends and challenges for the decades to come.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 3Q 2022

Monetary tightening has delivered higher interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 3Q 2022

Recession or not, we believe equity investors are going to feel like they’re in one as the valuation adjustment of the first half of 2022 is followed by downward revisions to earnings forecasts in the second half.

The inflation inflection: Adjusting to the new paradigm

Portfolios should be prepared for higher inflation and should contain not only assets that can mitigate against and take advantage of inflation, but also assets that can diversify against the uncertainty and volatility of the journey.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q22

A fundamentally robust economy and a positive earnings and default outlook make the case for holding risky assets through 2022, in our view. But the likely transition to structurally higher inflation and higher interest rates, plus the risk of central bank policy errors, could be a recipe for elevated volatility.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2022

With inflation top-of-mind for investors, we believe the Federal Reserve’s reaction function will likely be a key driver of real yields, the dollar and risk markets this year. Although we anticipate that inflation levels will ease, the decline will likely be shorter-lived and shallower than some expect.

Equity Market Outlook 1Q 2022

Given such a long list of concerns—from high asset valuations to a pandemic—the S&P 500 Index returns of 31%, 18% and 29% through 2019, 2020 and 2021 is impressive. Something more fundamental than that long list of concerns has kept on driving the market higher.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 4Q 2021

The immediate hurdles that we believe investors need to clear include supply disruptions and rising input costs, tighter fiscal and monetary conditions, and threats to growth in China. But which markets do we favor when core government bond yields remain so low?

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 4Q 2021

A potential default in China and shifting policy in Europe have been key developments in an environment of volatility and higher yields. Investors should focus on reorienting portfolios in light of the 'two-way' investment environment that will likely emerge in 2022.

Durable, sustainable, adaptable: Identifying potential “Transition Winners”

In the modern economy, the best long-term prospects belong to companies that have a durable competitive position, do little to no harm to society or the environment, and can adapt to change.

Ten for 2021 - Midyear Update

Last November, the heads of four investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2021. With the year half over, we see how they’ve played out and check the outlook.

Transitioning to net-zero investing

Support for the goal of net-zero emissions gained strong momentum during 2020. What does this imply for market participants, and what initial steps can asset owners and managers take on this daunting path?

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q21

The arrival of coronavirus vaccines means the economy should eventually get out of its sickbed but, faced with risks on both the upside and the downside, the Asset Allocation Committee thinks investors should take things steady.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q21

The arrival of coronavirus vaccines means the economy should eventually get out of its sickbed, but we think investors should take things steady as the recovery is likely to be uneven and bring its own risks.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2021

With asset prices close to record highs, we believe many investors are underestimating the potential risk of inflation as economies recover. Here, we focus on inflation developments and how they could affect fixed income positioning in 2021.

Solving for 2021: The world after the coronavirus

Neuberger Berman's senior investment leaders look to the coming year in the global economy and markets and identify key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2021.

A very bond-friendly crisis

Neuberger Berman's fixed income team believe the COVID-19 crisis and the response from governments and central banks creates an unusually favorable macro environment for credit.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20

Attempts to flatten but lengthen the growth curve of COVID-19 infections through social distancing and self-isolation will hopefully save lives and keep healthcare systems running. The price to pay is a steep reduction in economic activity.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q20

With a stable economy likely to provide a positive environment for credit this year, shifts in monetary policy could contribute to more frequent volatility in fixed income markets, while political developments will be an ongoing risk.

Solving for 2020

The heads of Neuberger Berman’s investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2020. These 10 themes are discussed in detail in this report.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 4Q19

Neuberger Berman’s Asset Allocation Committee meets quarterly to poll its members on their outlook for the next 12 months on each of the asset classes noted and, through debate and discussion, refines its own market outlook.

ESG Fixed Income Engagement Report

Material environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors have a meaningful impact on credit quality and therefore must be an important component of the credit research process.

Engaging in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)

Consistent engagement with companies can impact how management teams address key environmental, social and governance issues, and help to reduce credit risk.

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Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

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