Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Seeking income in a rising rate world

Stephen Dover, CFA, Chief Market Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute

The search for income has become more complicated as inflation soars to four-decade highs while the global economy wrestles with the continued supply and demand imbalances from the pandemic and war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, broad monetary policy tightening is raising concerns about slowing economic growth.

Income is an effective tool to lower the volatility of an investment in this uncertain environment by providing steady cash flow as principal value is fluctuating. Income opportunities exist for investors willing to broaden the potential sources of yield.

  • Dividend-paying stocks remain an important source of income. Given the uncertain economic backdrop, investors should remain selective and lean on quality dividend plays including stocks of companies with robust free cash flows and long track records of growing dividends. Companies that pass though inflated costs, like listed infrastructure and real estate, can be useful sources of income and potential inflation hedges.
  • If inflation remains elevated and central banks respond with higher-than-expected rate increases, investors should consider using short-duration instruments to mitigate interest rate risks. High-yield bonds and floating rate notes are good candidates in this environment given their higher nominal yields, low duration and relatively lower volatility. These instruments have better quality and stronger fundamentals than in the past, and unless economic growth falls dramatically, there is likely to be a low rate of defaults.
  • If inflation and rate increases do not rise above current market expectations, there is a case for longer-duration instruments. While bonds have been both more volatile than equities and more correlated to equities in the first part of 2022, this is not the case historically. If inflation slows and the economy does not fall into recession, the diversification effect (ballast) of longer-duration government bonds could return.
  • Private commercial real estate exhibits lower volatility relative to stocks, higher yields relative to traditional fixed income assets, and low correlation to returns from equities and bonds. Given that real estate leases tend to have contractual rent increases that are linked directly to annual inflation rates, the asset class has historically acted as a robust hedge against inflation.
  • Active management will be more critical going forward. Higher volatility can provide opportunity to reset allocations. Achieving a diversified portfolio will likely include a more creative re-allocation of traditional assets and a wider array of alternative assets. Re-allocating toward your long-term targets can help maintain balance in portfolios.

Download the full report


 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Shares

The case for and against US stock market exceptionalism

The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.

Taxation

Negative gearing: is it a tax concession?

Negative gearing allows investors to deduct rental property expenses, including interest, from taxable income, but its tax concession status is debatable. The real issue lies in the favorable tax treatment of capital gains. 

Investing

How can you not be bullish the US?

Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.

Planning

Navigating broken relationships and untangling assets

Untangling assets after a broken relationship can be daunting. But approaching the situation fully informed, in good health and with open communication can make the process more manageable and less costly.

Beware the bond vigilantes in Australia

Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.

Retirement

What you need to know about retirement village contracts

Retirement village contracts often require significant upfront payments, with residents losing control over their money. While they may offer a '100% share in capital gain', it's important to look at the numbers before committing.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.