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30 January 2025
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The era of easy money ebullience is over. Equity investors are experiencing the first sustained drawdown in 10 years, while bond investors are experiencing the same return phenomena as their equity counterparts.
While we are not at the point of despair investors are feeling the bear market blues. It is wise to remember that bear markets are normal and tend to be short-lived. The question of reaching the peak or trough is a perpetual one and no investor has ever picked either.
These markets present opportunities for those who know where to look.
Download the full paper here
Brilliant. So honest and lucid, backed up with statistics. I will now go back and prepare scenarios based on possible PE ratios. THANKS
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.
While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.
After a stellar run for banks, investors are wondering whether they can continue their outperformance or if a rotation into miners is imminent. There’s a good case that a switch is coming, and it may last decades, not just years.
DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.
If Australia is to control its own destiny in an AI-enabled future, it must build its own infrastructure, not rent it from overseas. Creating homemade AI is the first critical step in the long process of building Australia's AI economy.
The TV streaming business has become increasingly competitive, yet Netflix has managed to grow market share and become the dominant player. Here's how it's done that, and the opportunities it has moving forwards.
Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.
A big market sell-off can force pensioners to 'sell cheap' in order to meet their miniumum withdrawal requirements. Investing in less volatile assets that also deliver regular income could provide an alternative.