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21 January 2025
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Despite a recent pullback, gold has been one of the best performing assets this year. What are the key factors behind the rise and what's needed for the bull market in the yellow metal to continue?
While gold can create divisive views - Buffett called it a valueless pet rock - this assesses its place in portfolios from a supply-demand standpoint and versus currencies. Both angles suggest some exposure to gold is prudent.
Equity markets have traditionally struggled at times of sustained geopoltical tension. Gold, on the other hand, has thrived and can provide investors with protection against "unknown unknowns".
Volatility in interest rate expectations and elevated yields may amplify traditional portfolio risks. Gold has a low correlation to equities and bonds and can help improve the performance of portfolios.
As inflation is likely to remain stubbornly elevated, the correlation between bonds and equities could remain high, reducing diversification within portfolios. A gold allocation may help to better protect your investments.
Gold reached multiple highs in March, closing the month above US$2,200/oz. Looking forward, central bank demand remains robust but gold remains sensitive towards bond yield volatility in the short term.
US bank balance sheets are expanding again, driving increasing money supply that is finding its way into markets. It means inflation is likely to remain high, and inflation hedges like Bitcoin and gold may continue to do well.
We're likely to see higher interest rates for longer as inflation pressures remain elevated both here and the US. The top picks for 2024 centre around being defensive and looking for pockets of opportunity.
Despite the attention on Bitcoin, gold outperformed almost every asset class in AUD terms in 2022. Gold traditionally performs inversely to the US dollar, which may have topped out after a multi-year bull run.
Gold has a fascinating history and has always carried many of the characteristics of money. While central banks have moved to 'fiat' money, centuries of widespread acceptance give gold diversification merits.
According to economic theory, inflation and economic growth should be inversely related. Rising prices are a sign of an expanding economy, not slower growth, so how should investors react to stagflation?
While some investors struggle to find reasons to invest in gold, others see its different characteristics and role in a diversified portfolio of investments. In times of uncertainty, where does gold stand?
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.