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22 December 2024

Home / White Papers 2024

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook

  •   VanEck
  •   1 February 2024
  •      
  •   

Executive summary

If 2023 taught investors anything, it’s that being selective and diversified is key to riding the economic cycle. Had investors avoided risk assets on the back of many economists calling the “most anticipated recession” that never happened, they would have missed the artificial intelligence boom that sent the S&P 500 and the MSCI World ex Australia Index up more than 20%. One of the riskiest asset classes, private equity as represented by LPX 50 index returned more than 35%.

As we turn the page on another year, VanEck’s 2024 Asset Allocation Outlook dissects our views on inflation, policy rates, economic growth and exogenous risks as the lagged effect of the one of the sharpest rate hike cycles hits hardest. On balance, Australia and US should avoid a recession without the need for central bank policy rate cuts to smoothen the landing. Inflation will prove to be stickier than the market anticipates which reaffirms our tightening bias.

Stay the course and seek quality exposure across all risk asset classes including equities and fixed income. Emerging market equities, small caps, listed private equity and gold are cheap from a valuation standpoint. Investment grade and select government bond exposures are attractive.

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