Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 349

Vivek Prabhu on the volatility of bonds in changing times

Vivek Prabhu is Head of Fixed Income at Perpetual Investments and Portfolio Manager of Perpetual’s Diversified Income Fund and Ethical SRI Credit Fund. This interview took place in mid-February 2020 before the full implications of coronavirus were known.

GH. Fixed interest and high-yield trusts have attracted billions of dollars of retail money in the last two years. What are the dangers an investor should watch in that sector?

VP: Obviously, the interest in high-yield trusts is driven by cash and term deposit rates paying less than 1%. The key risk factor in these products is whether they're concentrated in one sector. In credit markets, you're paid a premium to cover for default risk. It’s a highly asymmetric risk profile. You receive regular and frequent small returns from interest coupons, but if the issuer defaults, you're exposed to potentially losing all your capital. It makes diversification really important, not only by company but also sector.

GH: What’s a sector where some listed trusts are not diversified enough?

VP: For example, property construction and property development. Some trusts are offering over 5% but concentrated in a risky sector.

GH: Indeed, any retail investor who owned bonds issued by Axcesstoday which defaulted recently now knows that even if they held another nine bonds from other companies, that’s not enough for portfolio diversification.

VP:  Yes, there are not many free lunches in investing, but diversification is definitely one.

GH: Most asset classes have done well in the last few years. Would you identify anywhere in the credit markets that you think is either cheap or expensive at the moment?

VP: There are some good opportunities in RMBS (residential mortgage-backed securities). In the chart below, using the left-hand axis, the red dotted line shows the ratio of credit spreads on RMBS relative to senior major bank issues. RMBS gives a good pickup. Senior unsecured major bank paper is rated AA-, and there are only a handful of banks around the world which carry a AA rating, and Australia has four of them.

GH: Make sure I understand this chart. A multiple of 1.0 means senior unsecured bank paper trades at the same margin as a major bank RMBS, right?

VP: Yes. At the moment, prime RMBS earns a credit premium of around 100bp (1%) compared to senior major bank credit premiums in the low 70 basis point area (0.7%), but unlike the bank paper, RMBS is secured by the underlying mortgages as collateral. And so the RMBS gets a AAA rating. The benefit of the RMBS structures is that as homeowners repay the principal and interest on their mortgages, the bondholder receives some of the principal back.

It’s very different to a corporate or bank bond, where the principal is repaid on maturity. It greatly reduces refinance risk because something is repaid monthly or quarterly. So not only is it higher rated and secured against collateral, you're also getting your principal back and a higher return.

GH: Yes, I personally own some RMBS and the regular cash flow is much greater than from a bond. You just have to record that the principal is no longer 100 on maturity.

VP: Yes, and the underlying risks in RMBS are similar to banks since residential mortgages make up over 60% of bank assets, plus with RMBS the underlying assets are in a more robust structure.

In the chart above, the dark blue line measured on the right-hand axis shows the percentage of my portfolio in all securitised assets and it’s over half, currently 55%, which is a record high in the 15-year history of the fund. It’s been as low as 20% when the relative credit spread was not as attractive. Since the end of 2018, I've been derisking my portfolio into quality securitised assets. The move up to 55% has been in lockstep with improving valuations as well.

GH: Are you buying the RMBS AAA class or also lower down the credit spectrum?

VP: Predominantly I’m in AAA but I am permitted to buy across the capital structure in RMBS and bank paper. Where I have reduced my exposure to fund the buying of AAA is by selling the BBB-rated securities. Look at this graph below which shows BBB credit spreads versus single A spreads. At the end of 2011, I had a low exposure to BBB (the red line below based on the right-hand axis), only about 10% of my portfolio. At that time, a BBB spread was equal to a single A spread (the multiple in the blue line measured on the left-hand axis).

GH: Again, a multiple of 1.0 means the BBB and A traded at the same margin, the blue line?

VP: Yes. At a multiple of 1.0, you're getting paid the same credit spread on A rated securities as you were on more risky BBB rated securities. The multiple has averaged 1.6 times over the last decade, and you can see it’s been as high as 2.5 times.

Then in early 2012, BBB credit spreads blew out and so I started to add BBB exposure. Now, since that period, my exposure has gradually drifted down. My BBB exposure peaked around mid-2015 when BBB spreads were close to their long-term average and I held this overweight position until late 2018. Not only was the multiple attractive, but it was falling consistently, which benefitted portfolio performance.

But as I mentioned, towards the end of 2018, in August, September, I began to derisk in the portfolio. Part of the thinking was that central banks were aiming to withdraw liquidity from the financial system for the first time since the GFC.

GH: That’s the late 2018 fall in the equity markets as well.

VP: Correct, a big risk-off time across all markets. My derisking moved into AAA senior secured amortising RMBS. But as we all know, in 2019, central banks did a big pivot, not withdrawing liquidity. And so the underlying catalyst for derisking changed, but notwithstanding I maintained the exposure to senior AAA asset backed and RMBS securities because the valuations were attractive.

GH: How much money is in the Perpetual Diversified Income Fund?

VP: Across the strategy, we have about $2.2 billion, and this Fund holds about $1.25 billion.

Going back to your first question on the fixed income risks, a lot of people who've chosen to maintain return (rather than accept lower returns for a given level of risk) have been chasing high yield or unrated bonds, but also pushing down margins at the bottom of investment grade (BBB). So I’ve been reallocating to the top of the credit spectrum.

GH: Last year, the Diversified Income Fund earned about 4% and the most recent running yield is 2.48%. Have the gains already been made in this sector?

VP: Well, if we look at the returns of that Fund over the long term, it has generated about two-thirds of its alpha from the running yield, or the credit premium, currently about 170bp above the bank bill rate. Plus we generate about one-third, or another 90bp, from active management strategies. So all other things being equal we could generate a gross return of 3.5%.

GH: Perpetual also has a listed credit fund, the Perpetual Credit Income Trust (ASX:PCI). What's the relationship between that and this?

VP: Not a direct relationship in that PCI has a less-constrained credit strategy, whereas the Diversified Income Fund is predominantly investment grade with a target return of BBR plus 200bp (2%). The Diversified Income Fund requires a minimum 75% of the portfolio in investment grade securities of BBB or above. It’s currently 91.7%. The PCI requires a minimum 30% in investment grade.

GH: How much change in credit spreads can the Diversified Income Fund tolerate before it starts to make losses?

VP: The portfolio has a maximum weighted average maturity limit the five years. Currently, the weighted average maturity is 2.8 years. And with a credit spread of 170 basis points (1.7%) above BBR, if you divide 170 by 2.8 years that's your 12-month break-even point on credit spreads. So we can afford spreads to widen by 60bp (0.6%) before we erode the credit yield premium. Looking at the total portfolio yield of 2.48%, credit spreads could widen by 90bp before you erode portfolio returns. And because it’s floating rate, from an interest rate point of view, there is no meaningful exposure to capital volatility as interest rates go up and down because it simply affects the income generated from the portfolio, not the capital value.

GH: In SMSFs, there is still a large allocation to term deposits. Why have term deposit rates fallen so much recently, further even than cash rates?

VP: Here’s a chart of cash rates, term deposit rates and the return on the Diversified Income Fund (light blue and dark blue lines). Cash is currently at 75 basis points (0.75%) and was subsequently cut to 50 basis points (0.5%) in March.

The green line dotted line is the one-year term deposit rate, which fell substantially recently. Part of the reason is that as we approach the lower bound of interest rates close to zero, banks are unable to pass on those rate falls to some of their deposit accounts which are already close to zero. It leaves the TDs to do the heavy lifting for the banks’ net interest margin. The average today is about 1.2% for 12 months (which would be even lower following the 25 basis point RBA rate cut in March), so depositors are not even maintaining a real return above inflation (1.8%).

That’s where a fund like the Diversified Income Fund plays a role. The dark blue line above shows the running yield of the portfolio, currently 2.5%. But 4% is the actual net return on the portfolio with value added by active management over the year.

GH: And on a mark-to-market basis, it looks like a loss in November and December 2018.

VP: Yes, from the widening credit spreads already discussed, we had a negative return in those two months. But the light blue line is a rolling 12-month net return, and over the last 10 years, the return has been below TDs in only 10 months in the period since 2010. That’s 115 months of history and over 90% of the time, the Diversified Income Fund has delivered a rolling 12-month return better than term deposits.

GH: Is that after fees, and what are the fees?

VP: 70 basis points (0.7%) if someone comes in through Perpetual. Unlike term deposits, this Fund also offers daily liquidity, plus a positive real return.

Our active approach to credit investing is based on relative valuation, which is why we do this sort of analysis. Studying different credit ratings bands or different parts of the capital structure, allows us to identify where the best value is and where the risks are.

 

Graham Hand is Managing Editor of Firstlinks, of which Perpetual Investments is a sponsor. This article is general information and does not consider the circumstances of any investor. The margins and analysis are as at mid-February 2020, and since the interview, markets have experienced significant changes. Nevertheless, the general lessons in managing a fixed interest portfolio remain valid. 

For more articles and papers from Perpetual, please click here.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Latest Updates

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

Economy

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

Preference votes matter

If the recent polls are anything to go by, we are headed for a hung parliament at the upcoming federal election. So more than ever, Australians need to give serious consideration to their preference votes.

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Tips for the last member standing

It’s common for people as they age to seek more help in running their SMSF if their capacity declines. An alternate director may be a great solution for someone just planning for short-term help in the meantime.

Wilson Asset Management on markets and its new income fund

In this interview, Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management discusses his outloook for the ASX, sectors such as REITs that he likes, and his firm's launch of a new income-oriented listed investment company.  

Planning

‘Life expectancy’ – and why I don’t like the expression

Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid. 

The shine is back on gold, and gold miners

Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.