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What impact would scrapping stamp duty have on housing?

Housing affordability is in the spotlight again. This is unsurprising.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, house prices have increased by 165%. Over the same period, the general price level has increased by 71.2% and income per capita has increased by 122%. As a result, housing has become more expensive and purchasing a home has become more difficult for average Australians.

What can improve this situation? In our research, we study the role of stamp duty on housing market outcomes.

The inefficiency of stamp duty

There are two main problems with stamp duty. First, it exacerbates credit constraints by making it more difficult for budget-constrained households to purchase a home.

For these households, who may already struggle to save for the downpayment, the added cost of stamp duty raises the upfront expense of buying property, making homeownership even less attainable. This cost is partly mitigated in some Australian states, with first-time home buyers exempt from stamp duty under some conditions.

Second, stamp duty discourages mobility after a home is purchased. Once households have bought a home, the high cost of stamp duty acts as a disincentive to move, even if their housing needs or preferences change. This creates inefficiencies in the housing market, as people may remain in homes that no longer suit their circumstances to avoid the financial burden of moving.

These problems are becoming more severe over time. To understand why, first, note that stamp duty is a progressive tax; the marginal rate increases with the price of the home.

Furthermore, as house prices have increased, in much of Australia, there has been little change in the stamp duty schedule. The ACT is the only real exception to this rule, where there has been a steady decline in the importance of stamp duty and a shift towards land tax.

Second, there has been a significant increase in house prices in most of Australia. This combination has generated, on average, an increase in the tax burden associated with purchasing a property. This greater tax burden is reflected in a decline in household mobility.

Modelling the welfare cost

We develop an economic model that captures the two primary reasons households may move home. First, they may relocate to a home that offers a different size or quality. This type of move involves a significant shift in price to reflect the change in the home’s attributes.

Second, households may move to a home with a similar price but with different characteristics, such as a change in layout, location, or features that better suit their lifestyle or preferences.

These moves often reflect a change in preferences or what we describe as a housing mismatch shock. Over time, a household’s needs evolve. Younger, growing families may have the need for more bedrooms. An older household may prefer to downsize and live in a single-storey home. Workers may change jobs, a home closer to their new work location may be preferred.

We use the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) database to study the prevalence of housing mismatch shocks. Using data on the change in the value of homes that a person lives in and their self-professed reasons for moving, we are able to estimate the probability that a housing preference shock occurs. This is a key ingredient that helps our model match the data and turns out to be important for measuring welfare changes.

Using this economic model, we can estimate the effect on key economic variables when stamp duty is removed, Budget balance is maintained by assuming an introduction of either a consumption tax or a recurring property tax.

Overall, we find that removing stamp duty only has a small impact on the homeownership rate. In our different model experiments, we find that removing stamp duty raises the homeownership rate by between 1 – 2 percentage points. The effects on house prices will also be moderate.

This does not mean reforming stamp duty is not worth doing. We find that if stamp duty was to be replaced with either a property tax or a consumption tax, households would be able to move more frequently and this would reduce housing mismatch. As a result, households would be better off in terms of welfare.

For future generations, the preferred policy would be to replace stamp duty with a property tax. The property tax in our model is similar to a land tax and our result aligns with a broad body of literature asserting that land taxes are generally non-distortionary in comparison to other forms of taxation.

Challenges and options

Replacing stamp duty with a property tax may be challenging. Current homeowners who have already paid a large cost upfront in the form of stamp duty would resist the idea of being asked to pay again a recurring property tax.

In our model, the majority of existing homeowners would prefer replacing stamp duty with a consumption tax. Hence, there is an implicit tension between what is good for the economy in the long run versus what is popular in the short run.

With a consumption tax, both homeowners and renters are taxed to recover the lost revenue from eliminating stamp duty. With a property tax, only homeowners bear this burden. Over two-thirds of the population own a home and would prefer the consumption tax.

One option to address homeowners’ resistance could be to allow new homebuyers the choice between paying stamp duty or opting for an annual property tax. This approach was implemented briefly by New South Wales (NSW) for first home buyers, but has since closed.

Another approach, as seen in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), is to gradually phase in a land tax while reducing stamp duty over time. This spreads the impact and allows for a smoother transition to a new tax system.

A final approach would be to provide people who have recently paid stamp duty a tax credit that reduces or eliminates their property tax burden for some time.

Fixing the housing crisis?

Our results confirm some of the previous literature: stamp duty is an inefficient tax. Removing stamp duty and replacing it with an alternative tax system will improve societal welfare.

However, there is a tension. While replacing stamp duty with a property tax provides the best outcome for future generations, replacing stamp duty with a consumption tax will be preferred by current households. It is not a panacea for the housing crisis, as reforming stamp duty will have only a modest effect on house prices and homeownership.

 

Citation: Cho, Yunho, Li, May & Uren, Lawrence, (2024), Housing Mismatch and Welfare Effects of Stamp Duty, Austaxpolicy: Tax and Transfer Policy Blog.

 

Yunho Cho is an Associate Professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Research at Jinan University and completed his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Melbourne.
May Li is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Melbourne and completed her Ph.D. in Economics at the University of Texas in Austin.
Lawrence Uren serves as a Senior Lecturer within the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne, and completed his doctoral studies in economics at Princeton University.

 

25 Comments
David
February 24, 2025

Stamp duty is a horrible tax. Anyone who owns property has endured it. I have always supported a simple solution for any transition and for existing stamp duty rules. People should only pay stamp duty once on an amount of money. If I have already paid duty on a $1m property purchase then that credit should carry forward to any future transaction. If I trade up to a $2m property I should only pay stamp duty on the extra $1m. It has never made sense to me that if I want to sell my $1m house and buy the $1m house further down the street that I should have to pay stamp duty on the same amount again. I don’t think most people would have a problem paying stamp duty on the additional amount if they want to buy into a more expensive property. This would help many people looking to downsize to not have to pay stamp duty. If they’ve avoided paying it previously because they have held long term then paying it once isn’t so offensive. If we transition from stamp duty to land tax then we can credit those who have paid stamp duty to give them relief for a period before having to pay anything further. Seems a no brainer for me.

Trevor
February 24, 2025

Land tax could work so long as everyone pays the same rate and it’s levied on all residential property no thresholds, exceptions or concessions. This would enable the government to keep the rate low. This and the abolition of stamp duty might encourage downsizing. Unlikely to happen though politically.

Disgruntled
February 24, 2025

Land tax would be assessed on value so it wouldn't be the same. Just like council rates are not.

If you've bought a property and paid Stamp Duty, you shouldn't have to pay land tax on that property for as long as you are there.

Trevor
February 25, 2025

Disgruntled, I’m not sure what you’re saying in your first paragraph.
Second paragraph. Stamp duty already paid could be treated as a prepayment of land tax and grossed up for cpi.

Disgruntled
February 26, 2025

An $800k house should not have the same land tax as a $5M house in Hawthorn East.

Bringing in a Land Tax should then only apply to property bought after that date.

All properties purchased prior to that date have paid stamp duty already. Why should they then have to pay land tax as well.

Land taxes to replace Stamp duty, not be additional to. It's one or the other, not both.

Stamp duty abolished Jan 1st 2027, buy a property after that and only pay land tax


Bought a property before that and already paid stamp duty.. Sorry property owners, you owe land tax too now.

That isn't fair.

Trevor
February 26, 2025

I don’t know how it works in Victoria but in NSW land tax is calculated on the basis of land value. So land tax on an expensive block of land will be higher than on a more modest block of land.

Stamp duty already paid could be grossed up for cpi and treated as prepaid land tax and credited against land tax liability.

If all residential land was subject to land tax then the rate could be quite low. Also there would be political consequences for governments that try to increase the tax rate.

Perhaps even a system could be implemented whereby the government would be required to take a proposed land tax increase to the people at election time before it can be implemented.

Disgruntled
February 26, 2025

I understand what you are saying Trevor. I don't agree with it.

If you have paid Stamp Duty on a property, you should never have to pay a Land Tax on that property, ever. Non PPoR excluded of course.

When you sell up, yes you would then be stuck with the Land Tax applied to your new property.

Even if the Land Tax Rate remains fixed, your Land Tax Rate is going to go up as the value of the Land increases. The rate will unlikely remain fixed though, this is the Government we are talking about afterall.

Rick Fante
February 24, 2025

The main point surrounding stamp duty is that it is a sizeable transaction cost. There are many factors that come into play when buying and or selling a property that can be debated but eliminating the highest cost in addition to the purchase price of a house is removing one of the major disincentives should you be considering down sizing or relocating.

John Wilson
February 23, 2025

I had already responded to John Abernethy's paper on how to fix the housing crisis. I commented that the existing housing stock is not used as efficiently as it would be if mobility was improved. At least part of this low mobility are state government stamp duty and agent fees.
I strongly question the authors' statement that there is only a small impact of "removing stamp duty raises the homeownership rate by between 1 – 2 percentage points." With perhaps 10 million homes in Australia, that's actually an increase in home ownership of 100,000 to 200,000 homes!
I have a personal example of the effects of downsizing costs. When we bought our home 40 odd years ago and extended it, it was appropriate (if probably oversized) for our family. Now we are 80, just the two of us, and the place is way oversized and we should downsize. That would free up our place for a young family to upsize to. However, with the SA state government's 5.5% stamp duty on the purchase, 3% agent fees on the sale, costs of moving and perhaps some minor renovations on the new place, the downsize would cost us $200k. We might only survive for a couple of years, so that downsize might cost $50k per year of use.
It won't happen!
The young family upsizing to buy our place would be up for a similar amount.
That is inefficient use of our property - in part driven by the SA government tax and by excessive agent fees.

John
February 24, 2025

You must be very energetic be contemplating a downsize at 80. It's a big deal and not just financially. It's time consuming to declutter and disruptive to keep your home immaculate during the sale period. Then there is the removal and disconnect. You may have to leave your immediate locale, which would oblige creating new relationships with new neighbours and service providers like doctors, hairdressers, shopkeepers and perhaps even social clubs. Redecorating and new furniture is often part of the hassle. We downsized slightly at 67 to a fully renovated investment property we owned only 500 metres away, partly to exploit the tax advantage of a $300k apiece downsizer contribution to superannuation and to start whittling away at its CGT liability, without needing to change any providers or social arrangements. We would need a much bigger government incentive, severe illness or frailty to do it again.

Rob
February 23, 2025

It is fundamentally a stupid debate that totally misses the point. We have a so called "housing crisis" because Demand exceeds Supply - the most fundamental principle of Economics. If you cannot increase Supply and we can’t, because of bureaucratic timelines on approvals, dopey Govt infrastructure and insufficient trades, you only have one "lever" - Demand. An instant step in the right direction is a hard cap on immigration.

As to suggestions I should downsize from my home of 27 years - go whistle dixie!

KIm
February 21, 2025

Stamp Duty on property purchases was supposed to be lifted when GST was introduced -but the States did not comply. Of course, the rates of this duty have not been lowered by State Governments to take into account massive property price increases. The main antagonists for lifting the duty are those with self interest - the Real Estate Institute, the Property Council and First Home Buyers. Real Estate Agents won't lower their commissions to stimulate the housing market - I calculate it would cost me over $100,000 to downsize into a smaller home, but why should I give the money to the Sate Government and to my Real Estate salesman who drives a new Range Rover?

Noel. Whittaker
February 21, 2025

It would be a burden on retirees whose main asset is their residence. Last time this was proposed idea was that a homebuyer could elect to pay stamp duty or accept a Land Tax liability on that property forever . Imagine what that would do to the resale value. And imagine how that would grow over time as the property appreciated.

Paul
February 21, 2025

Hi Noel, I’ve enjoyed your work over the years but you must recognise the other side to your argument.

So many elderly one and two person households will continue to stay in their freestanding 3 or 4 bedroom homes in prime locations because the cost of downsizing is enormous. The largest component of this cost is stamp duty.

If land tax is going to be such a burden on the elderly then surely this could be deferred until the property is sold either by having to go in to aged care or the estate selling.

Lyn
February 21, 2025

Paul, I too have enjoyed Noel's work back to his Sun- Herald days when often the only advice available. Why should I because of age and long ownership of home, for those who may follow, accept another round of Stamp duty to Downsize maybe to apartment of similar value to make a family home available? Stamp duty paid more than once to get to position now in to the tune of hundreds of thousands but you want my estate to accept a debit that stamp duty will be paid yet again on my death so I can make way for others who haven't saved as I did for stamp duty to make an upward change?
How much more 'tax' am I supposed to carry? I won't even add in amount of CGT that has been paid & will be due again on my death as I let a room in every home to a low-paid worker to 'help' with bills, including this one which will be 6 figures CGT again. My view is unless one has paid really big tax/stamp duy bills over 40yrs then one is not equipped to comment.

Kevin
February 21, 2025

You are not going to like this Paul!! This is life.You are not entitled to your fair share of my thinking/work/and wealth . You put nothing in to it that is exactly what you get out of it . You are not entitled to say sell your house,I want it,the govt can tax you after death .You are not entitled to,you can sell your shares pay the CGT on them,then if they crash I can buy them cheaply..You are not entitled to say I don't like the interest rates the bank wants to charge me Can I borrow the money from your super fund at much lower rates.Then when you get old you are not entitled to say I worked so hard for what I have ,why should I have to pay tax on it

What you are entitled to is put the graft in. Do the thinking,work out how to control the risk you will have to take. Work out how much leverage ( debt) you are happy with without going mad with worry.Think for yourself,don't follow the.crowd.Don't join in with group think and the well everybody else agrees,it must be right

In short I did all that to make me and my family better off,and to help the charities I support .I didn't do any of it to make your life easier. You'd be amazed where you can end up if you just stretch yourself a bit,and get out of the comfort zone .

Stephen
February 20, 2025

Abolishing stamp duty on property purchases will benefit two groups; State Governments who will see it as a tax that can be endlessly increased at will and property flippers who will face much lower transaction costs. Against that the economic benefits are minor. The experience in the ACT
has not gone well. The ACT Government spending is out of control and being funded by land taxes and stamp duty, that is now taking in more than when the transition to land taxes and stamp was introduced nearly a decade ago. The argument that lumpy stamp duty is a problem for State Governments is nonsense. They can invest in boom times and borrow in lean times thus evening out their revenues. The economic argument that stamp duty discourages mobility for workers is questionable in Australia which has only a few main cities and centres of employment unlike other countries.

The main groups pushing stamp duty are property developers and real estate acting in their using spurious economic theory as a disguise for their real interests.

I’m sure the residents of Northern Beaches and North Sydney would love to pay land tax in addition to their recent huge rate increases. Not.

Stephen
February 21, 2025

Correction. I meant to write, “The main groups pushing to abolish stamp duty and replace it with land tax are property developers and real estate agents using spurious economic theory as a disguise for their real interests”.

stefy01
February 21, 2025

+1000

Pamela
February 20, 2025

Why replace stamp duty with anything? Governments need to stick spending and allow people to get in with their lives without interference!

Aussie HIFIRE
February 20, 2025

One of the issues with a property tax is that absolutely no one with any brains trusts the government not to increase the tax over time, both through not adjusting for inflation and also through outright tax hikes.

GeorgeB
February 21, 2025

"no one with any brains trusts the government not to increase the tax over time"
Too right, in fact the govt has done just that by not indexing marginal rates for stamp duty which over time pushed median priced properties into a high tax bracket (5.5% in Victoria) in contrast to the early 80s when a median priced property attracted about 2% stamp duty while the higher brackets were reserved for mega mansions.

Trevor
February 21, 2025

NSW has frozen the land tax threshold

Disgruntled
February 20, 2025

Removing Stamp Duty will be a godsend to house flippers in the shorterm.

Removing stamp duty will increase house prices.

Couple go to an Auction with a price in mind for the property, budgeting for stamp duty. No stamp duty, they'll just spend that % on bidding higher for the home. They now have a mortgage and rates and land tax bill or cost of living with a rise in GST.

Steve
February 22, 2025

Basic economics says price is the mechanism to balance supply and demand. Price will only stabilise when supply increases to match demand. So you're right, everytime we give buyers more money, they just bid up prices at auction. So they'll "spend" the stamp duty anyway, and get the land tax on top of it. False economy big time. Yet again a demand side impact and does nothing for supply. Again.

 

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