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Stephen Miller

Is more trouble coming for the 60/40 portfolio?

The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.

2023: inflation, diversification, agility and an eye to recession

The RBA and interest rate markets are underestimating inflationary pressures. Combined with a government intent on increasing wages, there's a risk of entrenching higher inflation in Australia compared to elsewhere.

US rate rises would challenge multi-asset diversified portfolios

In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?

A tale of the inflation genie, the Fed and the RBA

The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.

It's not all about interest rates: give me a 1980s petshop galah!

The refusal of both sides of politics not only to adopt ‘microeconomic reform’ but in some cases reverse reforms, looms as a bigger driver of unemployment than any failure to fine-tune macro or monetary policy.

Post Covid, the risks are skewed to the downside

Despite the unknowns, Australia is vulnerable as a medium-sized open economy dependent on smoothly functioning international trade. It was already under stress before the onset of the crisis.

Latest Updates

Property

Affordability issues cap further house price rises

If the RBA starts cutting rates, many believe house prices will rebound strongly. Yet, the numbers on affordability suggest prices can’t rise much further without making housing impossibly expensive for most Australians.

Superannuation

How to shift into pension mode

How do you start accessing your super funds when you stop working, or maybe even before you stop working? This covers the basics, including how to switch your super accumulation account to an account-based pension.

Taxation

Reform overdue for family home CGT exemption

The capital gains tax main residence exemption is no longer 'fit for purpose', due to its inequities, inefficiency, and complexity. Here are several suggestions for adapting or curtailing the concession.

Investment strategies

The two key risks facing investors

In 2024, markets were buoyed by decent economic growth and US rate cuts, even as valuations became stretched. This year, more resilient portfolios may be needed to tackle risks from higher bond yields and market concentration.

Superannuation

Why systemic risks from ‘Big Super’ may be overplayed

What are the implications of ‘Big Super’ for our economy, financial markets and population? New research looks at the beneficial, detrimental and debatable aspects, spanning current impacts and potential future developments.

Property

What AI’s ‘Sputnik moment’ means for data centres

What we know about DeepSeek so far could be a mixed bag for data centre owners like Goodman Group. However, it's worth remembering that AI adoption isn't the only thing that matters to the industry's outlook.

Gold

Will 2025 be another banner year for gold?

Last year, gold surged 38% higher in Australian dollars, fuelled by investment demand and global risks. This year's outlook suggests potential for continued gold strength amid geopolitical uncertainties and currency vulnerabilities.

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