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23 December 2024
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Australia's reliance on raw material exports combined with imports of manufactured goods is ensuring that the Australian dollar remains closely pegged to commodities prices.
The lending patterns of households and businesses, when compared against GDP and disposable income, can provide useful insights into where the economy is headed.
Despite the recent falls, the performance of Chinese shares over the last 12 months is still above Japan, Europe, the US and Australia. But the Chinese market is a casino, and currency movements are more important.
Long term investors look forward to market-wide falls because good companies are sold off along with the rest. It gives a chance to buy into companies that were previously considered too expensive.
Many people have been quoting the Australian shares return for FY2015 as 2.4%, but that is only the price index. The accumulation index is up a healthy 7.1%. All asset classes generated returns well above inflation and cash rates.
It is widely believed that rising bond yields should be bad for share prices. But is this true in real life? The relationship between government bond yields and the price of shares is more complex than it first seems.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.
It’s halfway through the 2020s decade and time to get a scorecheck on the Australian stock market. The picture isn't pretty as Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far, though history shows that all is not lost.
Four years ago, we introduced our 'bubbles' chart to show how the market had become concentrated in one type of stock and one view of the future. This looks at what, if anything, has changed, and what it means for investors.
Regulatory tensions have weighed on Medibank's share price though it's unlikely that the government will step in and prop up private hospitals. This creates an opportunity to invest in Australia’s largest health insurer.
A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
An Australian anthropologist studying Japanese seniors has come to a counter-intuitive conclusion to what makes for a great retirement: she suggests the seeds may be found in how we approach our working years.