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David Bell

Squiggly lines and lessons in market timing

Obviously it’s best to sell high and buy low, but in the irrational world of stock markets, the past may offer little guide to the future. The most we can realistically expect is to learn how to tilt the odds in our favour.

Pension indexation is a $300 billion question

With the budget in deficit, debate about the sustainability of welfare and spending gathers pace. Looking at pension indexation alone, the two methods used differ by $300 billion in revenue between now and 2050.

Bruce Springsteen and Professor Robert Engle

Professor Engle received the 2003 Nobel Prize for his work on volatility, but he's moved on to systemic risk, and his calculations are far from reassuring. He also has a free website full of useful data.

Age pension reform and its consequences for financial plans

It's highly likely that the age pension will experience future reforms. A useful financial plan should model a reduction in pensions, rather than making an assumption that it'll be there when the money runs out.

The effect of real wage changes on retirement incomes

The impact of real wage growth on your future retirement income depends a lot on your pre-retirement position. Will you be kept in the manner to which you have become accustomed or will some adjustments need to be made?

It’s a new year: let’s save more, not procrastinate

The intention to save more is common, but it's often easier to procrastinate. There are useful techniques the wealth industry should consider to overcome this reluctance to save, to everyone's benefit.

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Investment strategies

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Shares

The case for and against US stock market exceptionalism

The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.

Taxation

Negative gearing: is it a tax concession?

Negative gearing allows investors to deduct rental property expenses, including interest, from taxable income, but its tax concession status is debatable. The real issue lies in the favorable tax treatment of capital gains. 

Investing

How can you not be bullish the US?

Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.

Planning

Navigating broken relationships and untangling assets

Untangling assets after a broken relationship can be daunting. But approaching the situation fully informed, in good health and with open communication can make the process more manageable and less costly.

Beware the bond vigilantes in Australia

Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.

Retirement

What you need to know about retirement village contracts

Retirement village contracts often require significant upfront payments, with residents losing control over their money. While they may offer a '100% share in capital gain', it's important to look at the numbers before committing.

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