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30 January 2025
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Secular stagnation can result from a sustained lack of demand or low growth in productivity, and can create low or negative investment returns. Could this happen in Australia?
Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.
Despite the Federal Reserve's tapering of its QE policy, liquidity in developed economies will remain abundant with the major central banks adding another USD1 trillion in 2014. But watch for global inflation.
Let's celebrate the positive effects of a floating exchange rate and the way it adjusts to make economic policy more effective. With some exceptions, a floating currency acts as a shock absorber to cushion volatility.
Around the world, real interest rates are now unusually low or even negative. The hunt for real yield that’s become a preoccupation of investors is likely to remain a dominant feature of investment markets for several years at least.
The Federal Government should run balanced budgets over the economic cycle, otherwise uncertainties build up and costs are imposed because the bills still have to be paid somehow.
While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.
After a stellar run for banks, investors are wondering whether they can continue their outperformance or if a rotation into miners is imminent. There’s a good case that a switch is coming, and it may last decades, not just years.
DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.
If Australia is to control its own destiny in an AI-enabled future, it must build its own infrastructure, not rent it from overseas. Creating homemade AI is the first critical step in the long process of building Australia's AI economy.
The TV streaming business has become increasingly competitive, yet Netflix has managed to grow market share and become the dominant player. Here's how it's done that, and the opportunities it has moving forwards.
Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.
A big market sell-off can force pensioners to 'sell cheap' in order to meet their miniumum withdrawal requirements. Investing in less volatile assets that also deliver regular income could provide an alternative.