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23 February 2025
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Most investors remain under-allocated to emerging market (EM) bonds despite hard currency EM bonds having outperformed developed market bonds over the past 20 years.
Views on inflation, policy rates, economic growth and exogenous risks following the sharp rate hikes of last year. On balance, Australia and US should avoid a recession without the need for central bank policy rate cuts to smoothen the landing.
How do investors approach 2024? The investment playbook is to approach risk assets selectively. A good start is to focus on leverage i.e. balance sheets and cash flow. We could see the US dollar come off further and gold continue to shine.
VanEck's latest outlook for global and Australian markets for the rest of the year concludes that inflation should rise, gold could glow, and puts liquidity and balance sheets in focus.
Market movements during the second quarter have been unpredictable and narrowly focused. The Fed’s fight against inflation still weighs on markets. A pivot in central bank policy may only happen if the order of magnitude changes significantly. This is true for both the Fed and the RBA.
Equal weight allocation outperforms market capitalisation indices because it consistently gives greater exposure to smaller stocks, which tend to outperform larger ones. VanEck has released its new findings capturing the recovery subsequent to the COVID-19 falls in this report.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
Decades of policy failure have induced a fall in housing affordability. Unless painful changes are made, an underclass will emerge in a society that is supposed to boast the one of the world's highest standards of living.
Australia boasts one of the world's highest dividend yielding sharemarkets, providing substantial benefits to investors and retirees. Despite this, individuals often stretch for even more yield, to their detriment.
The Australian sharemarket seems to be rewarding a number of unprofitable companies on the promise of future riches. Yet profits and cashflows still matter, as a recent case study of Domino's Pizza shows.
Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.
US equities rule global markets, but history is littered with examples of markets that seemed invincible — until they weren’t. Diversification will be key for investor portfolios going forwards.
Increasing house prices pose challenges for housing affordability. This investigates the impact of stamp duty on the property market, and how removing the tax could help address several key issues.