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Tim Congdon

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

Tim Congdon warned us and we ignored him on inflation

In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023? 

How long will the bad inflation news last?

The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.

Magic money printing and the reality of inflation

It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.

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The challenges with building a dividend portfolio

Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.

Retirement

How much do you need to retire?

Australians are used to hearing dire warnings that they don't have enough saved for a comfortable retirement. Yet most people need to save a lot less than you might think — as long as they meet an important condition.

Economics

Why a deflationary shock is near

Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.

Economy

Federal budget forecast errors need greater scrutiny

The discrepancies that are appearing between Treasury budget forecasts and actual outcomes need closer examination. The inaccurate forecasts are impacting economic projections and investment decisions.

Investment strategies

A reluctant investor’s guide to understanding bitcoin

As every aspect of our lives has been transformed by digitisation, the changing nature of money and currencies should come as no surprise. But while bitcoin is here to stay, many investors still lack a clear grasp of what it is. 

Investment strategies

Unearthing small and mid-cap gems

Small and mid-cap companies aligned with long-term trends like security, climate and digital media can offer compelling growth opportunities. Here are three US stocks that are set to take off in 2025.  

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Decoding the DNA of exceptional companies

Successful companies depend on management decisions, with bold choices, long-term vision, and calculated risks driving growth. Luxury brand, Hermès, exemplifies this, resulting in it creating immense shareholder wealth. 

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