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15 January 2025
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Inflation has peaked and cash rates are about to peak. That means asset price compression is mostly behind us and 2024 should deliver positive returns for all asset classes, especially those skewed towards income.
Pundits have once again declared the death of the 60% stock/40% bond portfolio amid sharp declines in both stock and bond prices. Based on history, balanced portfolios are apt to prove the naysayers wrong, again.
Low interest rates have so far not ruffled the 60/40 portfolio, but rising rates mean managers and investors will have to be vigilant to maintain returns while controlling volatility.
Equity valuations are lofty, but long bond rates have now returned to levels before the pandemic crisis. In a balanced portfolio, long bonds now provide more opportunity to cushion the volatility of equities.
A long-term investment horizon usually produces the best results for a balanced portfolio, but ignoring the bumps along the way can be difficult. Even a well-diversified portfolio will have large swings in the short-term.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.