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Company Earnings

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Recession surprise may be in store for the US stock market

Markets are partying like it's 1999, but history suggests that US earnings and economic growth are vulnerable following an interest rate tightening cycle. Investors should prepare their portfolios accordingly.

Is ResMed a trap or an opportunity?

ASX blue-chip ResMed has been hammered due to concerns that new obesity drugs will reduce demand for its product. What are these drugs, how effective are they and what impact could they have on the sleep apnoea market?

Global consumer and corporate resilience surprises everyone

Despite recession predictions, consumer activity and corporate earnings are holding up well. Global long-term interest rates probably peaked last October, and there are signs of corporate earnings re-acceleration.

‘Prepare for war’ with hostile markets

Indexes are up and volatility is down: what's not to like? Recent banking crises are likely to curtail economic activity and company earnings, and that's why now is the time for investors to play it safe.

Market narratives are seductive and dangerous

Human beings are storytelling animals yet it’s the job of investors to separate truth from fiction. And the truth lies in numbers, the company earnings and the multiples attached to those earnings.

Why stock prices are a distraction

Stock prices are like email: distraction machines. With email, it distracts people from getting work done efficiently, while with stock prices, they distract investors from what really matters: the businesses underlying them.

The early signals for August company earnings

Weaker share prices may have already discounted some bad news, but cost inflation is creating wide divergences inside and across sectors. Early results show some companies are strong enough to resist sector falls.

Beware the headlines as averages don’t tell the whole story

Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.

Australia, the Lucky Country again?

We may have been extremely unlucky with the unforgiving weather plaguing the East Coast of Australia this year. However, on the economic front we are by many measures in a strong position relative to the rest of the world.

Why valuation multiples fail in an exponential world

Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.

Five value chains driving the ‘transition winners’

The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.

Is your fund manager skilful or just lucky?

How do you separate skill from luck in the performance of a fund manager? Investing is a mix of art and science in a highly-competitive industry full of smart people. Here are tips on what to look for.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Meg on SMSFs: Clearing up confusion on the $3 million super tax

There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 566 with weekend update

Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.

  • 27 June 2024

Australian housing is twice as expensive as the US

A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.

The catalyst for a LICs rebound

The discounts on listed investment vehicles are at historically wide levels. There are lots of reasons given, including size and liquidity, yet there's a better explanation for the discounts, and why a rebound may be near.

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

How not to run out of money in retirement

The life expectancy tables used throughout the financial advice and retirement industry have issues and you need to prepare for the possibility of living a lot longer than you might have thought. Plan accordingly.

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