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Contrarian Investing

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Defining contrarianism in three stocks

Contrarian investing is not about doing the opposite to everyone else no matter what, it’s having courage in your convictions in a disciplined investment process. Here are examples of contrarian investing in practice.

A contrarian bet on Magellan Financial Group

Despite recent woes, Magellan offers deep value at current prices. Almost half of its equity value is investments, including cash, and there's significant  potential upside from its investments in Barrenjoey and Finclear.

Four principles for choosing the right active manager

Investors face a difficult decision when choosing their fund managers. Here's a guide for how they can find active managers with sustainable long-term advantages who can help make a difference to their portfolios.

Investors don't forecast well, and that's good news

All the evidence suggests investors can't forecast well. While that might appear to be bad news, if you dig a little deeper, it can create opportunities for those investors that are prepared to think differently.

Coronavirus and a roadmap for infected investing

As much as value investors with spare cash want to jump on undervalued companies, it's probably not the time to buy the dip in the market just yet as the US braces for coronavirus's full impact.

Mr Market isn't so foolish, after all

The story of Mr Market originated with Ben Graham and was further popularised by Warren Buffett, but does it still hold true? Based on experience, the two-investor scheme looks hopelessly oversimplified.

Charles Dalziell on life as a contrarian investor

How does a style that relies on investing in stocks the market dislikes sustain itself over time, when inevitably investors go through difficult markets until the value is realised? It’s not an easy way to run a fund manager.

Being an obvious idiot is the worst part of value investing

Value and contrarian investors often buy shares in companies rejected by the market, which makes it the hardest way to invest. It looks great when it works but idiotic when the market continues to disagree.

Fear factor should start the hunting season

The current level of fear in the market could be signalling a downturn or even another GFC. Investors should remember the lessons from the last crisis, and be in a position to take advantage of the next one.

Underperformance from investing at the wrong time

Investing with previous-year top performing fund managers and acting along with the crowd puts you on the wrong side of a zero-sum game. There may be a 'fear' premium for investing in out-of-favour styles.

Don’t do what everyone else is doing

Successful investors often say that investing contrary to everyone else is key. Unlisted commercial property is not liquid and carries leverage, but good investing is about finding properties where prices are favourable and creating a more valuable asset.

Investing against the herd, Part 3, Testing the theory

An 'against the herd' portfolio is some 54% higher than the 'follow the herd’ portfolio, and 22% better than a passive portfolio. Ignore the market hype and general sentiment and focus instead on the facts.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.

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