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21 January 2025
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As interest rates rise, more investors are attracted to bonds for income. What is the probability of default on investment-grade and below credits that might take the shine off what look like attractive returns?
The Chinese Government has been tightening lending conditions for developers but has no motive to undermine the housing market. Evergrande's restructure will be messy but the Government will stabilise the market.
Do you think investors can only lose heavily on bonds if the credit defaults? When bondholders accept 0.88% for 100 years, there is great potential for serious pain somewhere along the journey.
There are valid concerns about the coming pain among smaller companies but attractive risk-adjusted lending opportunities exist provided the right checks and precautions are taken.
An active manager of cash and fixed interest funds can achieve higher returns than the cash rate through a selection of other securities while managing both liquidity and income for clients.
Many retail investors have turned to unrated or high-yield corporate bonds in recent years, but conditions have been favourable. Watch for the once-a-decade spikes in default rates.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.