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21 January 2025
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It’s halfway through the 2020s decade and time to get a scorecheck on the Australian stock market. The picture isn't pretty as Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far, though history shows that all is not lost.
Risk in portfolios has dramatically increased as time horizons have shortened and investors have piled into equities. It's resulted in a growing disconnect between what investors need and what the financial industry is delivering.
The power to control the creation of money has moved from central banks to western governments by the issuing of state guarantees on bank credit. What are the implications for investing and inflation?
Like in the 1970s, today's investors face challenges of inflation, cold war, and fraying global trade ties - but unlike then, there's now high debt and environmental problems. Here's how to best navigate the difficult backdrop.
There's bad news for those who believe current inflation is transitory: history suggests once inflation peaks above 8%, as the US and much of Europe did this year, it takes a median 10 years to get the rate back to 3%.
If you think those darlings of the ASX, the WAAAX stocks, have the most spectacular valuation excesses, how about 80 cents to $280 in a few months? Poseidon was the biggest of all, and we don't learn the lessons.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
Despite previous failed attempts to inject a bit of the humanities into technical minds, we are reminded that Goethe, Elliot and other great poets actually can provide insights and wisdom to make for better investors.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.