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23 February 2025
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The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes, trade wars and policy uncertainty. Here's what it means for markets going forward.
Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.
The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.
Despite being richer, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in Australia. Some suggest we should focus less on GDP and more on broader measures of wellbeing, though there are pros and cons to that approach.
News nowadays seems to have become even more negative with constant stories of disasters, conflict, wrongdoing, grievance and loss. These risks can’t be ignored yet the history of investing suggests that pessimism doesn’t pay.
Investing is often portrayed as unapproachably complex. Can it be distilled into nine tips? An economist with 35 years of experience through numerous market cycles and events has given it a shot.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
Decades of policy failure have induced a fall in housing affordability. Unless painful changes are made, an underclass will emerge in a society that is supposed to boast the one of the world's highest standards of living.
Australia boasts one of the world's highest dividend yielding sharemarkets, providing substantial benefits to investors and retirees. Despite this, individuals often stretch for even more yield, to their detriment.
The Australian sharemarket seems to be rewarding a number of unprofitable companies on the promise of future riches. Yet profits and cashflows still matter, as a recent case study of Domino's Pizza shows.
Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.
US equities rule global markets, but history is littered with examples of markets that seemed invincible — until they weren’t. Diversification will be key for investor portfolios going forwards.
Increasing house prices pose challenges for housing affordability. This investigates the impact of stamp duty on the property market, and how removing the tax could help address several key issues.