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5 February 2025
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The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures. Negative interest rates are unlikely.
In 35 years watching investment markets, some themes continue to repeat. Investors don't need to live through the same mistakes if they follow this list of lessons learned from studying markets.
This brief history of the GFC and the lessons we should learn is a reminder that similar events will happen again at some stage, and this time we have no excuse not to be ready.
At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. Here are five basic lessons that demonstrate key aspects of investing.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
Keeping superannuation savings in term deposits will protect the capital but doesn't optimise the retirement outcome. There are many alternatives that should provide higher sustainable income over the long term.
While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.
After a stellar run for banks, investors are wondering whether they can continue their outperformance or if a rotation into miners is imminent. There’s a good case that a switch is coming, and it may last decades, not just years.
DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.
If Australia is to control its own destiny in an AI-enabled future, it must build its own infrastructure, not rent it from overseas. Creating homemade AI is the first critical step in the long process of building Australia's AI economy.
The TV streaming business has become increasingly competitive, yet Netflix has managed to grow market share and become the dominant player. Here's how it's done that, and the opportunities it has moving forwards.
Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.
A big market sell-off can force pensioners to 'sell cheap' in order to meet their miniumum withdrawal requirements. Investing in less volatile assets that also deliver regular income could provide an alternative.