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22 January 2025
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The Magnificent Seven stocks have driven indices to new highs, yet could face headwinds in the coming year. Challenges include their stretched valuations, inherent cyclicality, and high correlation to each other.
We are at a moment in the cycle for both bonds and stocks where investors are afraid to commit in case prices fall further, but they will not care about buying 200 points too soon when the market is 500 points higher.
The VIX as a measure of risk has a place in equity markets in interpreting market sentiment, but it is overly simplistic to think it can represent volatility in equities as a whole. Just what is it?
Most S&P500 companies are doing well with recent reported earnings above expectations. In the tech sector, the Big Five (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet) have also diversified their income sources.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.