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America, the world's new energy superpower

The US has become the world's new energy superpower, combining production, technology and capital in a way never previously achieved – a development sure to have global implications for decades to come.

Druckenmiller on the biggest mistake in the history of the Fed

Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.

Jamie Dimon on move from virtuous to vicious cycle

Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan is the most powerful commercial banker in the world, and his just-released letter to shareholders warns that while the current economy looks fine, the storm clouds ahead differ from the past.

How the global renewables arms race will benefit Australia

The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act is poised to have a significant impact on the US economy, especially in the renewable energy sector. Australia is well placed given our minerals are critical to decarbonisation.

9 ways that global markets are changing

Australia's economy is in good shape after the extraordinary shift in global markets over the past 12 months, but here are nine macro and geopolitical factors for investors to check in a rapidly-changing world.  

Markets appear too optimistic on central bank pivot

Central banks and markets disagree on how high and for how long interest rates will remain elevated. US stocks may not have bottomed, though bonds should have a better year as markets sweat on a Federal Reserve pivot.

How likely is a US recession? About 75%

The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.

Can quantitative tightening help the Fed fight inflation?

The US Federal Reserve's first foray into quantitative tightening from 2017 fizzled. Can asset-selling – aka money destroying – help fight inflation this time around?

Are concerns about inflation inflated?

While REITs and some value stocks are considered 'inflation-sensitive' assets, the data provide little support that they are good inflation hedges, and energy stocks and commodities are too volatile. So what works?

Why mega-tech growth are the best ‘value’ stocks in the market

They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.

The ‘cosmic’ forces leading the US to Modern Monetary Theory

If the world’s largest economy adopted a true MMT framework, the investment implications would be enormous. Economic growth would be materially greater but inflation and interest rates would also be much higher.

Biden is stimulating an economy already enjoying a sugar hit

US growth forecasts for 2021 are as high as 8%, so is the massive stimulus a superfluous ‘sugar hit’ amid shrinking spare capacity? High government debt points to taxes and reduced benefits, with inflation risks.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Meg on SMSFs: Clearing up confusion on the $3 million super tax

There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 566 with weekend update

Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.

  • 27 June 2024

Australian housing is twice as expensive as the US

A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.

The catalyst for a LICs rebound

The discounts on listed investment vehicles are at historically wide levels. There are lots of reasons given, including size and liquidity, yet there's a better explanation for the discounts, and why a rebound may be near.

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

How not to run out of money in retirement

The life expectancy tables used throughout the financial advice and retirement industry have issues and you need to prepare for the possibility of living a lot longer than you might have thought. Plan accordingly.

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