Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 383

The article from China Daily News is no idle threat. China would prefer to use the 'carrot' approach but does not hesitate to use the 'stick' when deemed necessary. China is in the process of transitioning to domestic led growth and diversifying its sources of natural resources in anticipation of future trade embargoes. To this end Xi Xinping's Belt and Road Initiative will achieve several goals: 1) Secure China's access to the world's resources, 2) Encourage markets for China's manufactures, 3) Provide employment for Chinese-speaking employees of the world's 5 largest construction companies and supporting industries, 4) Access cheaper labour markets when Chinese workers achieve middle income status, 5) Encourage favourable votes by host countries at the U.N., 6) Provide ports for possible future use by the People's Liberation Army Navy. There has been an event unfolding over the last half century that has already resulted in a transfer of significant wealth from the USA and other western countries to help lift hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens out of poverty. What is planned for the next 3 decades will likely have a profound effect on future generations and, although the USA may be headed for a serious reckoning, sooner or later citizens of the world will need to make a choice between economic interests and values of humanity. Readers are advised to become acquainted with a look at the bigger picture as indicated on another post:
'The Hundred-Year Marathon' by Michael Pillsbury: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HnNEIkxzCc
'Stealth War' by Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8IEtlOVzq4
'Trumps Biggest Failure' by Kraut: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMAt3BluAU
'The China Syndrome': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGl3HxEMJhI

We in Australia only hear the negative things about China. China imposed anti-dumping duties on barley in May 2020 is a typical example. According to THE STRATEGIST, an organization located in Canberra, with authors such as Tony Abbott and Kevin Andrews, there were eleven anti-dumping actions against Chinese products between February and July (2020). Some of the punitive tariffs imposed on Chinese products were as high as 78%. Australia has been the world’s third most prolific user of anti-dumping measures over the past six years, having initiated 84 actions (a third targeting China) , with only India and the United States doing more, according to the World Trade Organization. The vastly larger European Union economy, by contrast, initiated 67 actions over that period while Japan initiated just six.

Lobsters is another example. In Australia, we have a very stringent biosecurity to protect Australian and our environment. When it comes to China, they are restricting the trade when they discovered heavy metal in the lobsters.

It is extremely difficult for ordinary Australian, me included to have a balanced view towards other countries, especially China. How do we work with our largest trading partner when our view is often swayed by the politicians and media?

"anti-dumping measures":

If dumpers believe they are hard done by then they can request a review to which they can submit evidence.

If they don't then either they don't care to correct any mistakes or they were caught dumping.

Re foreign interference in Australian affairs, we should not forget Australia's bugging of the East Timor Parliament Building (under the pretence of an Aid project), to be able to gain the East Timor off-shore oil fields; the bugging of the personal mobile phones of the Indonesian President and his wife; and presumably other "foreign interferences" by Australia that have not been discovered.
China has a totalitarian government (so, effectively, has Singapore). India's government is close to an autocracy. Australia has a democracy. It all depends on what is the most productive form of government for a country given its stage of development and magnitude of its various problems and what each form of government can achieve. We have not a single km of highspeed rail despite 20 years of debate about it. In the same timeframe China has a highspeed rail network of 35,000km linking most major cities. In 2 generations, China raised the life expectancy of its population by approximately 45 years to 77. No democracy has done this. India certainly has not – and I doubt a democratic China would have achieved such developments.
The present anti-China sentiment by governments and media appears to result from the embarrassment of the US and its "partners" with the progress, industry and achievements of China compared with that of the western democracies (what a wonderful example the EU has turned out to be!). Eg. one steel company in Pudong Shanghai produces more steel than the entire US steel industry (and there are many other similar steel companies in China).
There are many repressive regimes around the world that Australia does not criticize (certainly not openly). For example, we are happy to trade (and not criticize) India (with its multi-tiered caste system and endemic corruption and nepotism at all levels including government). Today, China is criticized for its chauvinism re Hong Kong – isn’t it the response of Spain vs Catalonia recently ? I'm not promoting China over any other country or government, but judgements made on moral disdain and acrimony should also recognize facts and realities.

Graham, it sounds like you prefer to support the CCP than slowly exiting from a communist and repressive régime. I went through communist East Berlin in the 70s and the CCP seems far worse than the Soviet Union, but are you saying let's make money anyway? Profits before freedom. I feel that it is best Australia redirects its energies and the Australian economy away from the CCP rather than be beholden to them because very simply, there is no rule of law. Morally, I feel very sorry for the Chinese people as I did in 1970 for the German people under the Soviet Union.

Nice cover letter today – esp your points re China. In fact, China’s five year plan came out the week before the US election and many people missed it. I was speaking to a Federal politician and they said they hadn’t seen it. Don’t those folks send such important items around to all of them?!

Hi Graham,
China appears to be developing a new iron mine in Africa that some think will replace their reliance on Australia. If correct our economy could be in for a lot of hurt in 5 to 10 years time.

Hopefully some fair and polite discussion this week, we don't want to drive away our article contributors which will make us the lesser for it.