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25 December 2024

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

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Time to announce the X-factor for 2024

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.

Australian shares struggle as 2020s reach halfway point

It’s halfway through the 2020s decade and time to get a scorecheck on the Australian stock market. The picture isn't pretty as Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far, though history shows that all is not lost.

Is FOMO overruling investment basics?

Four years ago, we introduced our 'bubbles' chart to show how the market had become concentrated in one type of stock and one view of the future. This looks at what, if anything, has changed, and what it means for investors.

Is Medibank Private a bargain?

Regulatory tensions have weighed on Medibank's share price though it's unlikely that the government will step in and prop up private hospitals. This creates an opportunity to invest in Australia’s largest health insurer.

Negative correlations, positive allocations

A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.

The secret to a good retirement

An Australian anthropologist studying Japanese seniors has come to a counter-intuitive conclusion to what makes for a great retirement: she suggests the seeds may be found in how we approach our working years.

Subject Articles: Select the latest articles from each of the following sections

Addressing the gender super gap

The harsh reality is that most women retire with significantly less superannuation than men. There are many reasons for the gender super gap and here are some possible solutions to fix the long-running issue.

Meg on SMSFs: Where are the risks in our major super sectors?

Given the amount of money in super, it’s not surprising that there is a lot of focus on risk. SMSFs are often portrayed as the riskier option for the community as a whole, but does that tell the full story?

Global pension reforms and how Australia can improve

With plans to retire next year, Mercer's David Knox looks back at the global pension index he helped create, the key trends and developments since inception, and what Australia can to do to get better.

Is the Retirement Income Covenant really the right answer?

The world and Australia’s retirement landscape have changed a lot since 2020. If the RIC is to achieve its goals, a wider spread of responsibility and a rethink across all five pillars of retirement planning are needed.

Are mega super funds’ returns set to fall?

While the performance of the largest super funds has been admirable, they’ve become so big that it will make it difficult for them to outperform their benchmarks in future. It will be important for you to pick your fund wisely.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

How this GDP per capita recession compares to history

GDP was 0.3% for last quarter but the real story is this was Australia’s seventh consecutive quarter of negative GDP per capita growth. How does this economic drought compare to past ones, and what can we expect in future?

US debt, the weak AUD and the role of super funds

The more the US needs capital and funding, the higher its currency goes. For Australia, this has become a significant problem as the US draws our capital to sustain its growth, putting pressure on our economy and the Aussie dollar.

US election implications for investors and Australia

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes, trade wars and policy uncertainty. Here's what it means for markets going forward.

It's the cost of government, stupid

Australia's bloated government sector is every bit as responsible for our economic worries as the cost of living crisis. Grand schemes like the 'Future Made in Australia' only look set to make it worse.

Australia is lucky the British were the first 'intruders'

British colonisation's Common Law system contributed to economic prosperity, in contrast to Latin America's lower wealth under Civil Law. It influenced capitalism's success in former British colonies, like Australia.

A significant shift in the jobs market

The expansion of the 'care sector' represents the most profound structural change to Australia's job market since the mining boom. This analyses how it's come about and the impact it will have on the economy.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Cyclical stocks will drive markets higher in 2025

Magellan's Head of Global Equities, Arvid Streimann, thinks that although stock price momentum will slow next year, cyclical companies will lead the pack. He outlines the risks to his forecast and the stocks he likes best.

The mispriced investment opportunity in global defence

Markets benefitted from peace for 40 years, but a military resurgence is now underway, fuelled by geopolitical tensions and technological advancements. Defence spending is soaring, offering potential opportunities for investors.

How will stocks fare with a smaller US government?

Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.

Where is peak ETF?

The market share for Exchange Traded Funds and index trackers may increase past optimal levels and stay there for many years. There seems very little if anything that active managers can do to reverse that.

The net benefit of living in Australia’s cities has fallen dramatically

Rising urban housing costs in Australia are outpacing wage growth, particularly in cities like Sydney and Melbourne. This is leading to an exodus of workers, especially in their 30s, from cities to regions. 

Solvency risk with lifetime annuity providers

Any discussion on annuities needs to address the credit risk associated with relying on the solvency of a single insurer. Here's a guide on the regulation of annuities and the best ways to assess solvency risk. 

Can a crime invalidate a will?

A person's criminal record can impact whether they can benefit under a will or remain as an executor, trustee or testamentary guardian. A lot depends on the nature of the crime. 

The nuts and bolts of testamentary trusts

Unlike family trusts, testamentary trusts are activated posthumously, empowering you to exert post-death control over your assets. Learn how testamentary trusts offer unique benefits and protective measures.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

What will be your legacy?

As we get older, many of us start to think about how we’ll be remembered by those left behind. This looks at why that may not be the best strategy to ensure that you live life well and leave loved ones in good stead.

The gentle art of death cleaning

Most of us don't want to think about death. But there is a compelling reason why we do need to plan ahead, and that's because leaving our loved ones with a mess - financial or otherwise - is not how we want them to remember us.

What's next for gold?

Despite a recent pullback, gold has been one of the best performing assets this year. What are the key factors behind the rise and what's needed for the bull market in the yellow metal to continue?

The risks of market concentration and not staying invested

MFS chief investment officer and CEO elect Ted Maloney talks market risks, similarities between Trump and Harris, and the most important thing investors can do to avoid destroying value.

Morningstar's CEO on low-cost investing, AI, and tuning out the noise

In a recent interview, Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor explains why low-cost investing wins, how artificial intelligence and ESG will bring lots of opportunities, and why distractions are an investor's worst enemy.

For the younger generation, we need to get real on tax

The distortions in our tax system have been ignored for too long, and we're now paying the price. It's time Australia got real and addressed the problems to prevent an even greater intergenerational tragedy.

From our 2018 interview with Sir Michael Hintze, what's happened since?

We interviewed Sir Michael Hintze while his credit-focused hedge fund CQS was at the height of its powers. Since then, he's changed the firm's investment strategy and found a buyer in Canadian giant, Manulife.

Thornhill on shares for investment income in retirement

The dream of many investors is to be able to live off the dividend income from their shares. There is a relatively simple way to do this though it requires a mental fortitude that may not be for everyone.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 590 with weekend update

Investors love new companies yet it’s often the ones that have endured through generations that offer the best lessons. Here is a study of the world’s oldest-surviving businesses and the key characteristics that make them special.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 589 with weekend update

The US market is heading for back-to-back years with returns of more than 20% and the last that happened was at the height of the dot-com bubble. Can American exceptionalism continue or is it time to look elsewhere for ideas?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 588 with weekend update

Latest figures reveal the estimated assets of SMSFs have topped $1 trillion for the first time. It’s quite an achievement for a sector not yet 40 years old, and it’s been driven by new members and recent asset returns.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 587 with weekend update

As we collectively mourn the loss of Graham Hand, many of his friends, colleagues, and readers of Firstlinks have expressed a desire to make a donation in his honour. His family has established The Graham Hand Gift.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 586 with weekend update

New research shows active funds in Australia perform well against comparable passive funds. Yet, it also reveals managed funds with lower fees tend to do better than those with more expensive ones.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 585 with weekend update

New research reveals undiagnosed cognitive decline can cost retirees tens of thousands of dollars through bad investments or financial scams. It’s crucial to put legal and financial safeguards in place to protect your wealth.

Dividend ETFs may disappoint income investors

The structure of many dividend ETFs leads to lacklustre or non-existent dividend growth. Balancing high yields with long-term dividend growth is essential for effective income investing. 

Warren Buffett's sweetest investment

One of Buffett's most successful investments has been a confectionery company that he bought more than 50 years ago. The investment demonstrates that stocks need not be growth companies to create fortunes.

My disinterest in investments as an investment specialist

Shani Jayamanne takes a deliberately uninterested approach to investing. She outlines the technical and circumstantial reasons for why she goes against the grain and focuses on the real drivers of investment success.

The psychological shift from saving to spending in retirement

Why do people have trouble shifting from a saving to spending mindset in retirement? Researchers have plenty of theories though can't identify an exact cause, nevertheless there are things that can enable the shift.

Should you buy and hold an Artificial Intelligence portfolio?

For those with the patience to own an investment as volatile as the AI sector, buying and holding a stock basket might make sense. However, based on internet stocks’ history, you need not rush to do so.

What can super funds learn from advisers?

With the Treasury Department's review of superannuation in retirement, decumulation is firmly on the agenda, yet advisors have been grappling with this issue for years. So, what could super funds learn from advisers?

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