Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 13

An historical (not hysterical) look at gold

Around the world in the last two weeks, people have rushed retail stores to buy physical gold. Perth Mint has reported sales are at their highest level in five years, and they traded over the weekend to cope with demand. People are queuing across Asian cities in panic-like conditions, while the US mint has been forced to cancel sales of its gold coins. Buyers are responding to the rapid price fall to USD1,322 per ounce in mid-April, the lowest level for two years.

What is most extraordinary is that retail investors usually react to rapid market falls in the opposite way. When equity prices drop, investors usually panic from fear it will fall further. Inflows to managed funds are always at their strongest when the market is at its peak, and outflows at their highest when markets bottom. But something else is happening with gold.


Source: Compiled by Grant Williams of Mauldin Economics from various public sources.

A brief look at gold price history

Most of the time over history, one ounce of gold has been able to buy items worth the equivalent of around USD500 in today’s dollars adjusted for inflation. It has done so for much of the past 2,500 years through many societies. Occasionally the gold price (when measured in paper currencies) surges when paper currencies devalue, but it then falls back again in real terms. If bought below its long run level, gold can provide a hedge against the devaluation of paper, but if bought above the level it is speculation, not ‘investing’. It is not a matter of whether gold represents a store of value or some other safe haven characteristic. For an investor, it is only worth buying when it is cheap.

The gold price reached USD1,900 per ounce on 5 September 2011 in the midst of the US debt ceiling and credit downgrade crises. Since then it has fallen by more than 20%, including a 10% fall on 15 April 2013, triggered by fears that Cyprus and the PIIGS may have to sell their gold reserves to repay debts.

Gold may shoot up to USD4,000 or USD5,000 in one of two scenarios: (a) an extreme left wing outcome resulting in run-away US inflation leading to a breakdown of society; or (b) an extreme right wing scenario with a Tea Party-led Republican government bringing back the gold standard. These scenarios look remote. People who bought gold in the last bubble in 1979-80 are still waiting to get their money back in real terms after inflation 33 years later.

Investors cannot consider gold without also thinking about currencies and inflation, as the three are inextricably linked. Long term holding of gold makes sense as an inflation hedge or as a store of value if bought at or below the long term price around which it has oscillated for thousands of years. However, if paper currencies collapse, the nominal value of gold expressed in paper money terms can rise dramatically. So gold has most appeal if the investor’s home currency is about to experience massive hyper-inflation which destroys the value of paper money, which is unlikely in Australia in the near future. Or since the price of gold is expressed in USD terms, any expected rapid destruction in the value of a home currency may merit purchases of gold.

Of course, profits from short term trading are always possible as a more speculative bet, but long term portfolios are designed to look after long term needs, such as producing income and protecting wealth.

A copy of our comprehensive 2012 study of gold can be found here.

 

Ashley Owen is Joint CEO of Philo Capital Advisers and a Director of Third Link Investment Managers.

 

1 Comments
scottb
May 03, 2013

"Investors cannot consider gold without also thinking about currencies and inflation."

Indeed. But in considering inflation, Mr Owen has forgotten that governments purposely and systematically understate the amount of actual inflation so as to make it possible for debtors everywhere – and governments are the greatest of all debtors – to repay obligations in a devalued currency, thereby enabling the ongoing operations of a debt and liquidity-based economy. The U.S government reports inflation at about 2.5% (the basis of Mr Owens analysis), but in fact it's most likely significantly higher...close to 10%. Check out Shadowstats.com.

Adjusted for true inflation, gold peaked in 1980 at about $5,000 which would suggest there's some room to the upside today.

And one can't ignore the size of the monetary base today. A look at the the ratio of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base to the price of gold shows it above 2.0 ...almost record levels. All previous gold 'booms' have only stopped when the ratio falls below 0.22. And we are a very long way from that.

And consider this. In January 1980 when gold peaked at $875, the average price for gold for the month was $669. The monetary base in January 1980 was $132 billion, which means it took only 198 million ounces of gold to cover the monetary base. In January 2012 when gold averaged roughly $1,600, the monetary base was $2,750 billion. Thus it would take 1.7 billion ounces to cover the monetary base. To get the same coverage as in 1980, gold would have to be trading at almost $14,000.

Or maybe you can look at it like this. If the US actually has the 8,133 metric tonnes of gold they claim they have in their reserves (World Gold Council - World Official Gold Holdings) and the US used that gold to back the US monetary base, gold would have to rise $9,745 per ounce. Even backing 40% of the monetary base would see gold at $3,900 an ounce.

 

Leave a Comment:


RELATED ARTICLES

What do fund managers mean by Quality Investing?

1979 US Government defaults: what happened next?

Nassim Taleb on managing investments for rare events.

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 581 with weekend update

A recent industry event made me realise that a 30 year old investing trend could still have serious legs. Could it eventually pose a threat to two of Australia's biggest companies?

  • 10 October 2024

The nuts and bolts of family trusts

There are well over 800,000 family trusts in Australia, controlling more than $3 trillion of assets. Here's a guide on whether a family trust may have a place in your individual investment strategy.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 583 with weekend update

Investing guru Howard Marks says he had two epiphanies while visiting Australia recently: the two major asset classes aren’t what you think they are, and one key decision matters above all else when building portfolios.

  • 24 October 2024

Warren Buffett is preparing for a bear market. Should you?

Berkshire Hathaway’s third quarter earnings update reveals Buffett is selling stocks and building record cash reserves. Here’s a look at his track record in calling market tops and whether you should follow his lead and dial down risk.

Preserving wealth through generations is hard

How have so many wealthy families through history managed to squander their fortunes? This looks at the lessons from these families and offers several solutions to making and keeping money over the long-term.

A big win for bank customers against scammers

A recent ruling from The Australian Financial Complaints Authority may herald a new era for financial scams. For the first time, a bank is being forced to reimburse a customer for the amount they were scammed.

Latest Updates

Property

Coalition's super for housing plan is better than it looks

Housing affordability is shaping up as a major topic as we head toward the next federal election. The Coalition's proposal to allow home buyers to dip into their superannuation has merit, though misses one key feature.

Planning

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Retirement

More people want to delay retirement and continue working

A new survey suggests that most people aged 50 or over don't intend to stop work completely when they reach retirement age. And a significant proportion of those who delay retirement do so for non-financial reasons.

Economy

US debt, the weak AUD and the role of super funds

The more the US needs capital and funding, the higher its currency goes. For Australia, this has become a significant problem as the US draws our capital to sustain its growth, putting pressure on our economy and the Aussie dollar.

Investment strategies

America eats the world

As the S&P 500 rips to new highs, the US now accounts for a staggering two-thirds of the world equity index. This looks at how America came to dwarf other markets, and what could change to slow or halt its momentum.

Gold

What's next for gold?

Despite a recent pullback, gold has been one of the best performing assets this year. What are the key factors behind the rise and what's needed for the bull market in the yellow metal to continue?

Taxation

Consulting on the side? Don't fall into these tax traps

Consultants must be aware of the risks of Personal Service Income rules applying to their income. Especially if they want to split their income or work through a company.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.