Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 217

Five ways to avoid the 'value trap'

Investors with a predisposition to high conviction value investing often need value to be combined with an element of growth. Let's call it 'growth-value'. Our approach is not to look for 'cigar butts' but we do seek turnaround or under-researched ideas where the profits and growth are likely to continue.

Finding a 'value trap' investment is easy, but finding growth-value in an investment is hard. Everyone loves a bargain but it is important to look deep below the surface.

Looking beyond the value trap

A value trap is a company whose shares look cheap because they are trading at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value. For example, a low price to earnings (P/E) ratio or low value to earnings (or EV/EBITDA) ratio may be caused by a good reason, making the company a potential value trap.

Mistakes can be minimised by considering:

1. Consistent ROE and ROA

Management is key to any small company but it is especially vital when looking for growth-value. In our view, return on equity (ROE) provides a mechanism to measure management's track record delivering growth using the money shareholders have provided to the company. Value traps might have delivered strong ROE numerous years ago but a value-growth business will have consistent, and at a minimum, double digit ROE.

Should a company have debt, return on assets (ROA) needs to be taken into consideration. ROA accounts for the effectiveness of the company using that debt. Essentially, this provides a score of management's ability to generate returns across all sources of funding, both debt and equity. Different industries have differing levels of what is considered a healthy amount of debt so looking for consistency rather than volatility in an ROA figure is key.

ROE and ROA are two vital checks that provide a level of confidence around how efficiently management's ideas are being executed.

2. Balance sheet safety

For unloved small companies with debt, look at the interest cover ratio (EBIT relative to interest payments) as a proxy for business health. How many years' worth of interest payments can the current earnings sustain? Anything less than a multiple of two would be a concern and ideally this should be a lot higher.

The ratio of short-term receivables to payables is also a factor to consider. Regardless of the industry, consistency in this ratio indicates good management of working capital.

3. More than the basic valuation metrics

It is easy to get distracted and focus solely on a low P/E or EV/EBITDA and assume this translates to a high margin of safety. On their own these metrics tell nothing about growth prospects. In finding value-growth, the obvious growth factors such as revenue and EPS growth are looked for but also for EBITDA margin growth, free cash to enterprise valuation yield and the historical consistency of EBITDA to cash conversion. Together these provide a better understanding of the true margin of safety. It is a good sign if all these factors are inversely related to a low P/E or EV/EBITDA. If that is not the case then the company is probably on a low P/E or EV/EBITDA for a very good reason: it is a value trap.

We have made errors along the way by mistaking value traps for value-growth.

Investing is about maximising winners and minimising losers. Despite the perceived idea of minimal losses in value investing you still have to weigh up the likelihood of easily exiting an investment and the opportunity cost of that capital.

We like to think we are constantly learning from our mistakes, and the following two points have refined our investment approach.

4. Do not ignore industry thematics

We are fundamentally stock pickers, meaning our analysis is bottom up rather than looking at top down or macro and industry events and their potential impact on stock valuations. Regardless, it is a mistake to ignore the current and future industry environment in which a particular business operates. We have seen the speed and scale of technological disruption that is already impacting many industries. If tailwinds exist then growth is a lot easier to obtain, if headwinds are present then conviction on management's ability to adapt is needed.

5. Have a timeframe and stick to it

Always think about your opportunity cost of capital. Progress for small companies can take much longer than expected. Before making any value investment, have a timeframe in place. Within that timeframe, if benchmarks are not hit or are not explained in a logical manner, then it is time to reassess the investment.

To summarise, stick to what is known, look below the surface to assess business growth and management track record and always remember the opportunity cost of the invested dollar. Watch the investment rule that: "You don’t have to make money back the same way you lost it."

 

Robert Miller is a Portfolio Manager at NAOS Asset Management Limited. This article has been prepared for general information purposes only. It does not consider the circumstances of any individual and must not be construed as investment advice.


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

WAAAX and an extraordinary disconnect

Sebastian Evans: hanging on until the market catches up

Is value investing dead?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

An enlightened dividend path

While many chase high yields, true investment power lies in companies that steadily grow dividends. This strategy, rooted in patience and discipline, quietly compounds wealth and anchors investors through market turbulence.

Investment strategies

Don't let Trump derail your wealth creation plans

If you want to build wealth over the long-term, trying to guess the stock market's next move is generally a bad idea. In a month where this might be more tempting than ever, here is what you should focus on instead.

Economics

Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme

Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.

Investment strategies

Will China's EV boom end in tears?

China's EV dominance is reshaping global auto markets - but with soaring tariffs, overcapacity, and rising scrutiny, the industry’s meteoric rise may face a turbulent road ahead. Can China maintain its lead - or will it stall?

Investment strategies

REITs: a haven in a Trumpian world?

Equity markets have been lashed by Trump's tariff policies, yet REITs have outperformed. Not only are they largely unaffected by tariffs, but they offer a unique combination of growth, sound fundamentals, and value.

Shares

Why Europe is back on the global investor map

European equities are surging ahead of the U.S this year, driven by strong earnings, undervaluation, and fiscal stimulus. With quality founder-led firms and a strengthening Euro, Europe may be the next global investment hotspot.

Chalmers' disingenuous budget claims

The Treasurer often touts a $207 billion improvement in Australia's financial position. A deeper look at the numbers reveals something less impressive, caused far more by commodity price surprises than policy.

Fixed interest

Duration: Friend or foe in a defensive allocation?

Duration is back. After years in the doghouse, shifting markets and higher yields are restoring its role as a reliable diversifier and income source - offering defensive strength in today’s uncertain environment.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.