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31 January 2025
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At any point in the investment cycle, there are experts waving red flags warning of market falls. In the depths of the GFC, few brave souls were buying the bargains while most investors were still looking for the exit amid fears of further losses.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
Value investing compares the estimated intrinsic value of a company with its market value, and although growth and value go in cycles, there are signs that some value stocks are at attractive levels.
Value investing is not just about a low P/E or EV/EBITDA. Other metrics need to be considered to prevent falling into a value trap, as well as what challenges are facing the industry and the time frame allowed for success.
The S&P500 experiences a one-month return of -10% or worse only 1.5% of the time. Most drawdowns were much shallower and occur at higher frequencies, but are they worth spending money to protect against?
A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.