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14 March 2025
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At any point in the investment cycle, there are experts waving red flags warning of market falls. In the depths of the GFC, few brave souls were buying the bargains while most investors were still looking for the exit amid fears of further losses.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
Value investing compares the estimated intrinsic value of a company with its market value, and although growth and value go in cycles, there are signs that some value stocks are at attractive levels.
Value investing is not just about a low P/E or EV/EBITDA. Other metrics need to be considered to prevent falling into a value trap, as well as what challenges are facing the industry and the time frame allowed for success.
The S&P500 experiences a one-month return of -10% or worse only 1.5% of the time. Most drawdowns were much shallower and occur at higher frequencies, but are they worth spending money to protect against?
A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.
This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?
The capital gains tax main residence exemption is no longer 'fit for purpose', due to its inequities, inefficiency, and complexity. Here are several suggestions for adapting or curtailing the concession.
The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.
A Grattan Institute report suggests lifetime annuities as a solution to people not spending their super balances. The issue is whether underspending is the real problem or a sign of more fundamental failings in our retirement system.