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20 April 2025
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At any point in the investment cycle, there are experts waving red flags warning of market falls. In the depths of the GFC, few brave souls were buying the bargains while most investors were still looking for the exit amid fears of further losses.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
Value investing compares the estimated intrinsic value of a company with its market value, and although growth and value go in cycles, there are signs that some value stocks are at attractive levels.
Value investing is not just about a low P/E or EV/EBITDA. Other metrics need to be considered to prevent falling into a value trap, as well as what challenges are facing the industry and the time frame allowed for success.
The S&P500 experiences a one-month return of -10% or worse only 1.5% of the time. Most drawdowns were much shallower and occur at higher frequencies, but are they worth spending money to protect against?
A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.
The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.
With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.
With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.
The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today.
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now?