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23 February 2025
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The May reporting season showed that Australia's banks are in good shape and face a better outlook than many sectors of the Australian market, despite rising interest rates. Patience should reward shareholders.
All the major banks have reported their results. With Covid largely behind us, low unemployment and minimal bad debts, they've largely had a good time of it. Here's a look at the major themes and what's to come.
One of the major questions confronting investors is the portfolio weighting towards Australian banks in an environment of rising rates. Do the recent price falls represent value or are too many bad debts coming?
A key feature of the May results for the banking sector was profits trending back to pre-Covid-19 levels, thanks to lower than expected unemployment and the growth in house prices.
The forecasts were wrong. In COVID, banks were expected to face falling house prices, high unemployment and a lending downturn. In the recovery, which banks are awarded gold stars based on the better performance?
In reporting season, companies must deliver their results and many issue guidance for the next year. The response often send prices up or down and the market may make swift and not well-considered decisions.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
Decades of policy failure have induced a fall in housing affordability. Unless painful changes are made, an underclass will emerge in a society that is supposed to boast the one of the world's highest standards of living.
Australia boasts one of the world's highest dividend yielding sharemarkets, providing substantial benefits to investors and retirees. Despite this, individuals often stretch for even more yield, to their detriment.
The Australian sharemarket seems to be rewarding a number of unprofitable companies on the promise of future riches. Yet profits and cashflows still matter, as a recent case study of Domino's Pizza shows.
Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.
US equities rule global markets, but history is littered with examples of markets that seemed invincible — until they weren’t. Diversification will be key for investor portfolios going forwards.
Increasing house prices pose challenges for housing affordability. This investigates the impact of stamp duty on the property market, and how removing the tax could help address several key issues.