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22 December 2024
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The May reporting season showed that Australia's banks are in good shape and face a better outlook than many sectors of the Australian market, despite rising interest rates. Patience should reward shareholders.
All the major banks have reported their results. With Covid largely behind us, low unemployment and minimal bad debts, they've largely had a good time of it. Here's a look at the major themes and what's to come.
One of the major questions confronting investors is the portfolio weighting towards Australian banks in an environment of rising rates. Do the recent price falls represent value or are too many bad debts coming?
A key feature of the May results for the banking sector was profits trending back to pre-Covid-19 levels, thanks to lower than expected unemployment and the growth in house prices.
The forecasts were wrong. In COVID, banks were expected to face falling house prices, high unemployment and a lending downturn. In the recovery, which banks are awarded gold stars based on the better performance?
In reporting season, companies must deliver their results and many issue guidance for the next year. The response often send prices up or down and the market may make swift and not well-considered decisions.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.
It’s halfway through the 2020s decade and time to get a scorecheck on the Australian stock market. The picture isn't pretty as Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far, though history shows that all is not lost.
Four years ago, we introduced our 'bubbles' chart to show how the market had become concentrated in one type of stock and one view of the future. This looks at what, if anything, has changed, and what it means for investors.
Regulatory tensions have weighed on Medibank's share price though it's unlikely that the government will step in and prop up private hospitals. This creates an opportunity to invest in Australia’s largest health insurer.
A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
An Australian anthropologist studying Japanese seniors has come to a counter-intuitive conclusion to what makes for a great retirement: she suggests the seeds may be found in how we approach our working years.