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3 July 2024
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This paper, by Erik Knutzen, explores the evolution of private markets over the past 30 years and looks at key trends and challenges for the decades to come.
Monetary tightening has delivered higher interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year.
Recession or not, we believe equity investors are going to feel like they’re in one as the valuation adjustment of the first half of 2022 is followed by downward revisions to earnings forecasts in the second half.
Portfolios should be prepared for higher inflation and should contain not only assets that can mitigate against and take advantage of inflation, but also assets that can diversify against the uncertainty and volatility of the journey.
A fundamentally robust economy and a positive earnings and default outlook make the case for holding risky assets through 2022, in our view. But the likely transition to structurally higher inflation and higher interest rates, plus the risk of central bank policy errors, could be a recipe for elevated volatility.
With inflation top-of-mind for investors, we believe the Federal Reserve’s reaction function will likely be a key driver of real yields, the dollar and risk markets this year. Although we anticipate that inflation levels will ease, the decline will likely be shorter-lived and shallower than some expect.
The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.
Australian consumers have held up remarkably well amid rising interest rates and inflation. Yet, there are increasing signs that this is turning, and the weakness in consumer spending may last years, not months.
The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.
It's that time of year when investors sell underperforming stocks at a loss to offset capital gains from profitable investments. This tax-loss selling is creating opportunities in three quality ASX stocks.
Across the globe, leaders are concerned about the fallout from declining birth rates and shrinking populations. Australia, though attractive to migrants, mirrors global birth rate declines, and faces its own challenges.
Australians are paying almost two billion dollars in credit and debit card fees each year and the RBA wil now probe the whole payment system. What changes are needed to ensure the system is fair and transparent?
Many Australians neglect key retirement planning tools. Investment bonds are increasingly valuable as they facilitate intergenerational wealth transfer and offer strategic tax advantages, thereby enhancing financial security.