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22 January 2025
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It’s not just cricket, SMSF ‘pensions’ miss out, losing on logic alone, loss aversion, ETF growth, unwinding warnings, watch lower quality assets.
The principles behind the cricketing scandal that every Australian woke up to last Sunday are universal. In the wake of the Royal Commission's devastating findings, we should discuss how they apply to business.
After test matches resumed in 1993, Australia held the upper hand and peaked at the bottom of the GFC. In stock markets, South Africa is edging it in US$ terms but killing it in local currencies.
The logic on Labor's franking policy demands an answer to one question: how does a franking credit refund differ from an employee receiving a PAYG refund after putting a tax return?
Labor has been forced to exempt 'pensioners' from its franking credit refund policy, but the target remains the zero tax paid by large SMSFs in pension phase. That will sustain the class war.
Loss aversion means some people avoid annuities because a premature death may lead to a loss of capital, but lifetime annuities with death benefits aim to address this problem.
The future of ETFs appears strong as the millennials increase their share of the investment pie, and the majority of financial advisers now comfortable with ETFs.
Market fundamentals are pointing toward an era of high volatility and lower returns, which have not been factored into current prices. Better to wait till there is blood in the streets rather than be fully invested.
Higher volatility, higher funding costs, US rate rises with AUD interest rates decoupling, Quantitative Tightening, maturing bond reinvestment flows all point to a difficult 2018.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.