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21 January 2025
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Market headwinds but is this top a turn? real return delusions, poor for 50 years, tax inefficiency, stop chasing risky yields, blockchain, cyber investing.
High debt, wealth inequality, increasing automation, ageing population, and climate change are among the most significant structural headwinds the global economy faces today. What could this mean for equity investors?
What cost $1 in 1988 now costs $2.29 adjusted for inflation. We should make return calculations in real terms or we are deluding ourselves about investment performance over longer terms.
It's too easy to look at a long-term chart of rising share prices and be reassured about performance. But adjusted for inflation, many of our largest companies have gone nowhere in half a century.
Many people are reluctant to plan financially for their death, and it's not simply a matter of passing money to heirs. Far more tax-effective techniques are available which can make inheritance simpler.
As interest rates fell in recent years, there was a push into emerging markets debt, but as worldwide central bank stimulus reduces, many of these 'emerging' countries are showing why they are poorly rated.
If you're still getting your head around blockchain, read this quick summary on the potential of distributed ledgers. The technology is not without problems but cannot be ignored.
Devices connected to the internet, not just phones and laptops, are increasingly part of everyday life. Soon, it will be our lights and doorbells, and later, almost everything, with more risk of hacking.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.