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22 December 2024

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Edition: 358

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 358

  • 20 May 2020

One of the many victims of COVID-19 is Australia as a private sector, market-based economy. It's become a public-subsidised economy. Most workers are on some type of government support, and the downturn is disguised in the official numbers. Last week's unemployment rate of 6.2% is fiction, as most workers are either unemployed, paid by the government or they have given up looking for work. How do we climb out of the valley?

Baseline outlook for economic recovery is too optimistic

We cannot throw our hands up in the air and say 'this time around, it's simply too hard'. Having no macro view is unhelpful, but many of the baseline scenarios are overly optimistic, says the former CEO of Westpac and now Chairman of Cboe (formerly Chi-X) Australia.

Will our government embrace these three reforms?

COVID-19 is an opportunity for a crucial policy reset, but what does that really mean? Business is hoping for three big reforms, but there are massive barriers to be overcome.

8 reasons business has little to learn from 'The Last Dance'

Everyone seems to be watching The Last Dance, a fascinating sports documentary about the pursuit of excellence by one of the greatest athletes of all time. Let's not stretch the business analogy too far.

Do long-term investors need to care about the ‘next big thing’?

When we look back five years from now, which companies will we regret not having bought at today’s prices? The next opportunities come from focusing on the long term, not the next few months.

Not all non-residential real estate performs the same

Retail assets, particularly those focused on discretionary shopping, will continue to underperform and industrial and logistics assets will be the winners for the foreseeable future.

The uncertainties of using debt in a time of crisis

The ability of countries to support their economies today turns on fiscal practices set well before this crisis. Increasing levels of debt escalate overall risk, and tie our hands in the future.

Do you qualify for this help in the crisis?

It will surprise many that benefits worth over $8,700 could be available for a couple with a super balance over $4 million. Check if you are eligible for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card.

What SMSF trustees need to know about benefit payments now

The government has announced initiatives to help people use their superannuation in response to the crisis, but for early access and drawdown changes, there are important rules to follow.

On the pandemic front line: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

Unlike the share prices of some companies which have held up due to their defensive characteristics, Fisher & Paykel is playing an active role in mitigating the worst effects of the crisis.

Four huge categories of change after the pandemic

The deteriorating mood will bring changes that will have profound economic, financial, social and political changes that can be grouped into new, accelerated, busted and possible trends.

Which market comes out first in a recovery?

Downside risks remain and we expect another leg down, but active managers should take advantage of market dislocations. In the current context, humility and risk management are key.

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It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

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