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Edition: 416

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 416 with weekend update

  • 15 July 2021
  • 3

Noise. It causes such basic errors in our decision-making that a new book from three top-selling US authors is called: 'Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement'. The examples in the book include wide variations in prison sentences for the same crime and insurance assessors awarding different damages for the same event. And then there are our investment decisions.

Investing is like water, but what the hell is water?

Markets always deliver delusions and manias, but there's something unique now. Investors do not speak a common language at a time when there's more money for speculative ideas than ever. Check the water.

How real are the three key regulatory risks facing Big Tech?

Drawing on experience as a bank analyst who studied the legislative process during the GFC, an internet analyst now has a unique insight into three key risks faced by Big Tech and implications for share prices.

Among key trends in Australian banks, one factor stands out

The Big Four banks look similar but they are at fundamentally different stages as they move to simpler business models. Amid challenges from operating systems, loan growth and neobank threats, one factor stands tall.

Selected reader comments on retirement spending article

The article by former leading super consultant, Don Ezra, on how he calculated how much to spend in his own retirement has been viewed over 12,000 times. We reproduce selected comments by readers on their own journey.

How the Intergenerational Report misleads on super

Super tax concessions will be worth more than the cost of the pensions in future, but they represent two fundamentally different forms of government support for our retirement income system. Both have a role.

Best-in-class, ‘pure-play’ companies give clearer focus

Best-in-class or ‘pure-play’ companies concentrate on one business really well, while companies with diverse operations lead to inefficient capital allocation and underinvest in the best opportunities.

Three reasons investors should buy in a tech sell off

The leading global innovation companies such as Amazon, Google, Tencent and Alibaba, alongside tomorrow’s champions in Tesla, Afterpay and Xero, offer better prospects than traditional ‘old-world’ value investments.

Most viewed in recent weeks

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

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