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Edition: 531

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 531 with weekend update

  • 19 October 2023
  • 7

LICs will always have a place but they will never match ETF volumes again. The baggage of discounts, and even large premiums, is too heavy, with three new  announcements. And I describe the biggest loss this year in my own SMSF.

Meg on SMSFs: negative earnings and the $3 million tax

There’s no good news in the draft legislation for 'Division 296 tax', the new name for the tax on super over $3 million. These worked examples show the flaw in taxing unrealised gains. And stop calling it a 30% tax.

What's next for bank hybrids?

APRA is investigating bank hybrids to better secure bank capital and the broader financial system. The problem in Australia is most hybrids are held by 'retail' investors who may not understand the risks. 

The biggest loss this year in my SMSF portfolio

Regardless of the strengths of a stock, there are no certainties. Bond rates have risen far higher than most analysts expected and 'bond proxies' have suffered, even property with long leases, quality tenants and tailwinds.

The five best ways to prepare for your retirement

Managing retirement is as important as building a superannuation balance. Leaving work can lead to a loss of identify if there is a failure to craft a new life and it is a big shock for many retirees.

Bond opportunities in a higher rate world

As investors navigate a potential recession and the possibility of higher interest rates for longer, the lure of fixed income is understandable. Here a primer to help investors decide which bonds may be best for them.

Global recession looms as debt balloons

Global equity markets face serious challenges, including expensive equity valuations, sticky inflation, high interest rates, and huge debt levels in most major economies. Recession seems probable, as does low equity returns.

What is trend following and why do it?

Trend-following strategies have been around for a long time though they're still seemingly underappreciated. These strategies can provide diversification benefits and help protect downside risks to portfolios.

Podcast: Trading vs boredom, tax-free super, 2024 global recession?

James Gruber looks at the investment art of doing nothing, Graham Hand wonders why people are paying tax by not starting a super pension, and Peter Warnes predicts a protracted global recession starting mid-next year.

Survey results: Your personal experiences with inflation

Over four in five respondents feel inflation has risen faster than official statistics and three-quarters believe companies are taking advantage of circumstances to increases prices. Check the quirky anecdotes.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

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