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21 January 2025
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New ABS forecasts highlight how quickly our population will age, and investors need to prepare now for the enormous changes that it will bring. Further limits on super and the pension seem inevitable in the long-term.
By our estimate, housing is 40% overvalued, making it one of the world's priciest assets and even more expensive than the 'Magnificent Seven' US tech stocks. That doesn't bode well for future returns from property.
We're likely to see higher interest rates for longer as inflation pressures remain elevated both here and the US. The top picks for 2024 centre around being defensive and looking for pockets of opportunity.
Key takeaways from this year include economic outlooks have limited usefulness in positioning portfolios, and there’s a difference between falling prices and cheap assets, and that difference matters a great deal.
One of the hardest decisions for many people – excluding those who want to keep on working – is choosing when to stop. Moving into pension mode is a big decision, and here are some options and considerations.
Decarbonisation will be a driving theme for markets for decades to come, and estimates of its costs are still far too low. It will benefit mining companies as demand will be structurally higher going forwards.
This is your Quick Reference Guide for the year’s important facts and figures. It includes what you need to know on personal tax rates and offsets, as well as super contributions, caps, benefits, and thresholds.
In recent years, large caps returns have dwarfed those of small and mid-caps, especially in the US. 2024 could be the year that reverses as earnings growth re-accelerates for higher quality smaller companies.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.