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Economic Cycles

1-12 out of 20 results.

An odd and wild ASX reporting season

This is probably the most interesting earnings season in my 20-odd-year career, with share prices meaningfully diverging from earnings and prospects. It’s reflected all the greed and fear of investor behaviour.

The paradox of investment cycles

Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.

Investing throughout economic cycles

Each stage in the economic cycle has unique characteristics that impact the relative performance of factors of individual shares that explain the long-term risk and return performance of an asset.

From macro to micro: end-of-cycle investing

For a decade of accommodative central bank monetary policy, investors have been more macro-oriented, following liquidity and rate patterns. It’s time to focus on companies and be more micro-oriented.

Recession and why timing markets doesn't pay

Inevitably, with each new development in this cycle, investors as what they can do to prepare for a recession. Our answer: revisit asset allocation, diversify, and review active risks in your portfolio.

What does the shape of the yield curve tell us?

Many experts are warning that over the past 60 years, the yield curve has inverted in advance of every recession, but will a yield curve inversion have a different result this time?

Can Australian credit continue to perform?

Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.

Reports of the death of economic cycles are greatly exaggerated

Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.

Don’t sweat the big stuff

Too many variables affect the market and economies, and most are unforeseeable or overly complex to understand. Instead of wasting time on such macro issues, it's better to focus on your investment edge.

The major weaknesses of LICs and managed funds

Promoters of different investment structures obviously extol the virtues of their own products and highlight the weaknesses of others. What's interesting is that a weakness can also be a strength.

Fundamental indexing over the cycle

Fundamental indexing is now well-established in Australia, but has recently underperformed cap-weighted indexes. What is the longer-term outlook and rationale?

Anyone for a dip? Price falls a buying opportunity

Long term investors look forward to market-wide falls because good companies are sold off along with the rest. It gives a chance to buy into companies that were previously considered too expensive.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

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