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23 February 2025
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When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.
Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.
In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.
If high levels of intangibles are not written down by the auditors – even after years of generating mediocre returns – the market will often do the writing down for them. Either way, shareholders receive lousy returns.
If you are not happy to own the entire business for a decade, you should not be comfortable owners of even one share for just a few minutes. Time is the friend of the extraordinary business but the enemy of the poor business.
Price is what you pay for something, but value is what you will receive and the value will ultimately determine your return. Your job as an investor then, is to own shares that are worth more than you paid for them.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
Decades of policy failure have induced a fall in housing affordability. Unless painful changes are made, an underclass will emerge in a society that is supposed to boast the one of the world's highest standards of living.
Australia boasts one of the world's highest dividend yielding sharemarkets, providing substantial benefits to investors and retirees. Despite this, individuals often stretch for even more yield, to their detriment.
The Australian sharemarket seems to be rewarding a number of unprofitable companies on the promise of future riches. Yet profits and cashflows still matter, as a recent case study of Domino's Pizza shows.
Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.
US equities rule global markets, but history is littered with examples of markets that seemed invincible — until they weren’t. Diversification will be key for investor portfolios going forwards.
Increasing house prices pose challenges for housing affordability. This investigates the impact of stamp duty on the property market, and how removing the tax could help address several key issues.