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Roger Montgomery

Beware the headache when the QE party ends

Buying long-term bonds at yields below historical inflation rates is asking for trouble, despite the recent rises in bond rates. Even QE policymakers have their doubts.

Premature talk of bubble trouble

Australia may not be facing a stockmarket or property bubble right now, but there are early signs of concern. It's worth knowing what to look for and safeguarding against personal loss.

The black box of general insurance

The reported profit that any insurer can make is largely an accounting construct. Actuaries estimate the profile of claims that policy holders are expected to make in the future.

Residential investment property fails simple valuation test

Residential property for investment purposes can be valued like any other financial asset that produces a series of cash flow.

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Testing Ben Graham’s voting and weighing machines

Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Investment strategies

21 reasons we’re nearing the end of a secular bull market

Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.

Property

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

Investment strategies

Market entry – dip your toe or jump in all at once?

Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns. 

Investment strategies

The US$21 trillion question: is AI an opportunity or excess?

It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.

Economy

US energy strategy holds lessons for Australia

The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.

Strategy

Venezuela’s democratic roots are deeper than Trump knows

Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future. 

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