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Roger Montgomery

Beware the headache when the QE party ends

Buying long-term bonds at yields below historical inflation rates is asking for trouble, despite the recent rises in bond rates. Even QE policymakers have their doubts.

Premature talk of bubble trouble

Australia may not be facing a stockmarket or property bubble right now, but there are early signs of concern. It's worth knowing what to look for and safeguarding against personal loss.

The black box of general insurance

The reported profit that any insurer can make is largely an accounting construct. Actuaries estimate the profile of claims that policy holders are expected to make in the future.

Residential investment property fails simple valuation test

Residential property for investment purposes can be valued like any other financial asset that produces a series of cash flow.

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Testing Ben Graham’s voting and weighing machines

Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.

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Investment strategies

The thin line between investing and gambling

Prediction markets are blurring the line between investing and speculation and savvy investors can profit from this trend by heeding the advice of famed investor, Benjamin Graham.

Strategy

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

Gold

Are we running out of gold?

Geopolitical instability and challenges with new gold discoveries mean we may be approaching a structural shortage of mineable gold, but what does this mean for gold's overall long-term availability?

Investment strategies

ETF investors adding to portfolios during recent volatility

In the face of recent market volatility investors continue to add to their ETF portfolios with these ETFs getting notable inflows, indicating that long-term fundamentals remain solid.

Strategy

Policy setting in democracies

Democracies aren’t a given, and policymakers need to be mindful not to alienate communities and instead be more aligned with mainstream ideas and attitudes. 

Investment strategies

Take my money and lie to me… again

As private funds increasingly show signs of cracking and buckling under a complete lack of liquidity, the salespeople do their best to keep the cash pouring in from new investors. 

Economy

Australia was once a world leader in innovation, now the system is ‘broken’

Ambitious Australia joins a long line of reports examining research and development, finding Australia has fallen behind its peers on many fronts. It urges bold reform to address declining productivity and research spending.

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