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Roger Montgomery

The decline of margin lending

Investments using margin loans must at least cover the cost of interest and other fees, currently around 8%. Fewer investors are using these products, but how long until we fall in love all over again?

The Australian-based gas exporters

The current crop of LNG projects represents a combined $188 billion in investment, but Japanese buyers are looking at other sources. What they find may have a significant impact on returns for Australian investors.

Know who’s managing your business

Poor management can quickly erode value, even in a good business, so it’s important to have confidence in the people pulling the levers.

Beware the headache when the QE party ends

Buying long-term bonds at yields below historical inflation rates is asking for trouble, despite the recent rises in bond rates. Even QE policymakers have their doubts.

Premature talk of bubble trouble

Australia may not be facing a stockmarket or property bubble right now, but there are early signs of concern. It's worth knowing what to look for and safeguarding against personal loss.

The black box of general insurance

The reported profit that any insurer can make is largely an accounting construct. Actuaries estimate the profile of claims that policy holders are expected to make in the future.

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Planning

Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.

The fight over testamentary trusts looked settled. Then the draft legislation arrived. Hidden in a technical detail is a question that could force many families to rethink wills they thought were already future-proof.

Investment strategies

The new capital gains tax trap for your portfolio

Investors have long accepted one portfolio rule without much question. A major tax shift could change that calculation entirely, forcing difficult trade-offs between risk, discipline and an overlooked cost lurking beneath.

Economy

Population growth masks Australia’s productivity problem

For years, investors have benefited from a seemingly reliable growth story. But recent national accounts raise uncomfortable questions about what has really been driving Australia’s economy and whether that can continue unchecked.

Investment strategies

Why tomorrow’s winners may not be today’s index leaders

The stocks that built retirement balances over the past decade now dominate many portfolios. The new challenge is whether these companies can continue meeting the increasingly high expectations embedded in today's share prices.

Investing

What earnings surprises reveal about future returns

Sometimes the most important information in an earnings result isn't the number itself. It's the possibility that the market's assumptions have been fundamentally wrong and future earnings may look very different.

SMSF strategies

Individual SMSF Trusteeship directly liable for ATO fines

A rarely discussed detail buried in SMSF structures could dramatically change who wears the cost when something goes wrong. With penalties rising, a decision many dismissed as administrative may deserve a second look.

Investment strategies

The currency bet you didn’t know you made

Buying global shares means making two bets: on the companies and on the Australian dollar. Most investors consciously choose only the first. Last financial year, the second bet cost 8.5% in returns for many investors.

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