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Roger Montgomery

Premature talk of bubble trouble

Australia may not be facing a stockmarket or property bubble right now, but there are early signs of concern. It's worth knowing what to look for and safeguarding against personal loss.

The black box of general insurance

The reported profit that any insurer can make is largely an accounting construct. Actuaries estimate the profile of claims that policy holders are expected to make in the future.

Residential investment property fails simple valuation test

Residential property for investment purposes can be valued like any other financial asset that produces a series of cash flow.

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Testing Ben Graham’s voting and weighing machines

Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.

Ben Graham’s three most enduring principles

In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.

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Investment strategies

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

Economy

A pullback in Australian consumer spending could last years

Australian consumers have held up remarkably well amid rising interest rates and inflation. Yet, there are increasing signs that this is turning, and the weakness in consumer spending may last years, not months.

Investment strategies

The 9 most important things I've learned about investing over 40 years

The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

Shares

Tax-loss selling creates opportunities in these 3 ASX stocks

It's that time of year when investors sell underperforming stocks at a loss to offset capital gains from profitable investments. This tax-loss selling is creating opportunities in three quality ASX stocks.

Economy

The global baby bust

Across the globe, leaders are concerned about the fallout from declining birth rates and shrinking populations. Australia, though attractive to migrants, mirrors global birth rate declines, and faces its own challenges.

Economy

Hidden card fees and why cash should make a comeback

Australians are paying almost two billion dollars in credit and debit card fees each year and the RBA wil now probe the whole payment system. What changes are needed to ensure the system is fair and transparent?

Investment strategies

Investment bonds should be considered for retirement planning

Many Australians neglect key retirement planning tools. Investment bonds are increasingly valuable as they facilitate intergenerational wealth transfer and offer strategic tax advantages, thereby enhancing financial security.

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