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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

How good a guide is guidance?

The market's fixation with whether companies are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of quarterly financial targets is inhibiting market efficiency. Investors would do better focussing on long-term prospects.

Are bonds failing us as a warning signal?

In previous cycles, bond yields provided a strong indication of the general health of the economy, but huge coordinated actions by central banks are changing that paradigm. Watch how you read the signals.

Don’t let Brexit rush you to the exit

The media screams the scary headlines at times like Brexit as the share market reacts to the uncertainty. Investors need to ignore the shouting and accept with equanimity that this is the cost of participation.

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

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Property

Financial pathways to buying a home require planning

In the six months of my battle with brain cancer, one part of financial markets has fascinated me, and it’s probably not what you think. What's led the pages of my reading is real estate, especially residential.

Meg on SMSFs: $3 million super tax coming whether we’re ready or not

A Senate Committee reported back last week with a majority recommendation to pass the $3 million super tax unaltered. It seems that the tax is coming, and this is what those affected should be doing now to prepare for it.

Economy

Household spending falls as higher costs bite

Shoppers are cutting back spending at supermarkets, gyms, and bakeries to cope with soaring insurance and education costs as household spending continues to slump. Renters especially are feeling the pinch.

Shares

Who gets the gold stars this bank reporting season?

The recent bank reporting season saw all the major banks report solid results, large share buybacks, and very low bad debts. Here's a look at the main themes from the results, and the winners and losers.

Shares

Small caps v large caps: Don’t be penny wise but pound foolish

What is the catalyst for smalls caps to start outperforming their larger counterparts? Cheap relative valuation is bullish though it isn't a catalyst, so what else could drive a long-awaited turnaround?

Financial planning

Estate planning made simple, Part II

'Putting your affairs in order' is a term that is commonly used when people are approaching the end of their life. It is not as easy as it sounds, though it should not overwhelming, or consume all of your spare time.

Financial planning

Where Baby Boomer wealth will end up

By 2028, all Baby Boomers will be eligible for retirement and the Baby Boomer bubble will have all but deflated. Where will this generation's money end up, and what are the implications for the wealth management industry?

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