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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

How good a guide is guidance?

The market's fixation with whether companies are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of quarterly financial targets is inhibiting market efficiency. Investors would do better focussing on long-term prospects.

Are bonds failing us as a warning signal?

In previous cycles, bond yields provided a strong indication of the general health of the economy, but huge coordinated actions by central banks are changing that paradigm. Watch how you read the signals.

Don’t let Brexit rush you to the exit

The media screams the scary headlines at times like Brexit as the share market reacts to the uncertainty. Investors need to ignore the shouting and accept with equanimity that this is the cost of participation.

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

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Investment strategies

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

Economy

A pullback in Australian consumer spending could last years

Australian consumers have held up remarkably well amid rising interest rates and inflation. Yet, there are increasing signs that this is turning, and the weakness in consumer spending may last years, not months.

Investment strategies

The 9 most important things I've learned about investing over 40 years

The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

Shares

Tax-loss selling creates opportunities in these 3 ASX stocks

It's that time of year when investors sell underperforming stocks at a loss to offset capital gains from profitable investments. This tax-loss selling is creating opportunities in three quality ASX stocks.

Economy

The global baby bust

Across the globe, leaders are concerned about the fallout from declining birth rates and shrinking populations. Australia, though attractive to migrants, mirrors global birth rate declines, and faces its own challenges.

Economy

Hidden card fees and why cash should make a comeback

Australians are paying almost two billion dollars in credit and debit card fees each year and the RBA wil now probe the whole payment system. What changes are needed to ensure the system is fair and transparent?

Investment strategies

Investment bonds should be considered for retirement planning

Many Australians neglect key retirement planning tools. Investment bonds are increasingly valuable as they facilitate intergenerational wealth transfer and offer strategic tax advantages, thereby enhancing financial security.

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