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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Make alternatives mainstream and don’t be sold short

Disruption across many industries often makes it easier to pick the losers than the winners. Short-selling can play an important and legitimate role in an investment portfolio, although it continues to attract criticism.

How good a guide is guidance?

The market's fixation with whether companies are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of quarterly financial targets is inhibiting market efficiency. Investors would do better focussing on long-term prospects.

Are bonds failing us as a warning signal?

In previous cycles, bond yields provided a strong indication of the general health of the economy, but huge coordinated actions by central banks are changing that paradigm. Watch how you read the signals.

Don’t let Brexit rush you to the exit

The media screams the scary headlines at times like Brexit as the share market reacts to the uncertainty. Investors need to ignore the shouting and accept with equanimity that this is the cost of participation.

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

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