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Roger Montgomery

High or low price, future returns will be low

Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.

Seismic change and investing in barbells

The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.

Index funds lack checks on stocks they buy

The economics of Australia’s biggest listed companies will not turn significantly more positive in the next 10 years. Don’t expect the large cap-weighted indices to produce returns any better.

Perfect storm brewing for local retailers

A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.

What should you do next?

Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?

Second-level thinking on Australian banks

Understanding the difference between first- and second-level thinking can make for more informed investment decisions, finding things others miss or bringing insights others don’t possess.

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Planning

How the typical Australian Family could save $844,350 in taxes

The value of a testamentary trust is not determined by wealth alone. Depending on circumstances, it can reduce the tax burden on inherited income, create efficiencies and help build intergenerational wealth.

Superannuation

There's a reason why your super is locked up until your 60s

For decades, it seemed settled. Then one controversial idea reignited a debate that could reshape the financial future of millions. The real question isn’t who’s right or wrong, but whether a long-held assumption deserves another look.

Property

The housing slide could become a crash

House prices are sliding across Australia, yet the most dangerous ingredient for a housing crash is still missing. If job losses surge amid growing economic risks, today's correction could become a historic property downturn.

Retirement

Under-retiring: The greatest retirement risk in a generation

Two retirees. Similar savings. Completely different lives. New research from Challenger reveals why some Australians confidently spend in retirement while others hold back and the overlooked factor shaping retirement decisions.

Five risks to watch in markets

Things you may often hear are: a recession is around the corner, markets are overpriced, the AI sector is about to flop at any moment. It’s like the never-ending laundry pile that sits in my house, it never really disappears.

Investment strategies

Do you qualify as ‘rich’?

What does it mean to be 'rich'? For something so universally desired, it is surprisingly difficult to define. That ambiguity creates a challenge for investors and raises a bigger question about what financial success really looks like.

Investment strategies

If you’re worried about your bond portfolio, you’re missing the point

Most investors think they know what bonds are for. But when markets turn volatile, a surprising misunderstanding can lead to costly decisions. Here’s the overlooked lesson that could change how you view your portfolio.

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