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Roger Montgomery

Seismic change and investing in barbells

The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.

Index funds lack checks on stocks they buy

The economics of Australia’s biggest listed companies will not turn significantly more positive in the next 10 years. Don’t expect the large cap-weighted indices to produce returns any better.

Perfect storm brewing for local retailers

A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.

What should you do next?

Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?

Second-level thinking on Australian banks

Understanding the difference between first- and second-level thinking can make for more informed investment decisions, finding things others miss or bringing insights others don’t possess.

Investing in 2017 and beyond

Pointing the crystal ball to 2017, what's the outlook for residential property and which sectors of the sharemarket offer the most potential? There are new opportunities to buy some quality companies at reasonable prices.

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Planning

Does your will qualify for the discretionary testamentary trust exemption?

Treasury has confirmed the exemption many families were hoping for. But buried in the fine print are two conditions that could leave some wills on the wrong side of the exemption, despite years of careful planning.

Lithium's latest drop and what it means for ASX investors

Lithium's latest sell-off has punished ASX miners as prices remain hostage to shifting expectations. The key challenge is navigating a market prone to extreme volatility despite a strong case for the long-term demand outlook.

Investment strategies

CGT reform and fund turnover: who really feels the impact?

The implications of CGT reform are far and wide. As the 50% discount gives way to inflation indexation, turnover and return profiles may become critical drivers of after-tax performance. Some strategies face a far greater hit.

Superannuation

Super was built for a very different Australia

Our retirement system was built around assumptions that no longer hold. Lower homeownership, longer lifespans and changing expectations are exposing cracks that policymakers and super funds need to address.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 4 months in

Many people spend years planning financially for retirement but little time preparing for what comes next. Four months in, here are the surprising lessons I've learnt on finding purpose, social connection and healthy habits.

Investment strategies

After the Budget, Australia needs its own definition of quality

As tax reforms reshape investment incentives, investors should rethink what quality investing means in the uniquely concentrated Australian market, where traditional frameworks may not translate as effectively.

Datacenters are the new shale oil

Why are tech giants pouring billions into datacentres when the economics look questionable? The most dangerous words in investing may be: "everyone else is doing it". Today's AI boom has striking parallels with the shale bust.

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